Incumbent Republican Randy Feenstra claimed a decisive election night victory on November 5 in Iowa's 4th Congressional District, leading Democratic challenger Ryan Melton by over 30 points with more than 95% of votes counted. This outcome matches pre-election polling averages, where Feenstra held double-digit margins in the safely Republican seat (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+17), bolstered by strong incumbency advantages and limited Democratic turnout in rural strongholds. Trader consensus prices a 89% implied probability on Republican win, with residual uncertainty from final absentee ballot tallies and state certification process, typically completed within weeks absent challenges. No recounts are expected given the wide margin.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIA-04 Wahlsieger
IA-04 Wahlsieger
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republikanische Partei
89%
Demokratische Partei
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republikanische Partei
$0 Vol.
89%
Demokratische Partei
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Randy Feenstra claimed a decisive election night victory on November 5 in Iowa's 4th Congressional District, leading Democratic challenger Ryan Melton by over 30 points with more than 95% of votes counted. This outcome matches pre-election polling averages, where Feenstra held double-digit margins in the safely Republican seat (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+17), bolstered by strong incumbency advantages and limited Democratic turnout in rural strongholds. Trader consensus prices a 89% implied probability on Republican win, with residual uncertainty from final absentee ballot tallies and state certification process, typically completed within weeks absent challenges. No recounts are expected given the wide margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Randy Feenstra claimed a decisive election night victory on November 5 in Iowa's 4th Congressional District, leading Democratic challenger Ryan Melton by over 30 points with more than 95% of votes counted. This outcome matches pre-election polling averages, where Feenstra held double-digit margins in the safely Republican seat (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+17), bolstered by strong incumbency advantages and limited Democratic turnout in rural strongholds. Trader consensus prices a 89% implied probability on Republican win, with residual uncertainty from final absentee ballot tallies and state certification process, typically completed within weeks absent challenges. No recounts are expected given the wide margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Randy Feenstra claimed a decisive election night victory on November 5 in Iowa's 4th Congressional District, leading Democratic challenger Ryan Melton by over 30 points with more than 95% of votes counted. This outcome matches pre-election polling averages, where Feenstra held double-digit margins in the safely Republican seat (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+17), bolstered by strong incumbency advantages and limited Democratic turnout in rural strongholds. Trader consensus prices a 89% implied probability on Republican win, with residual uncertainty from final absentee ballot tallies and state certification process, typically completed within weeks absent challenges. No recounts are expected given the wide margin.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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