South Dakota’s at-large House district has long favored Republicans, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination on June 2 with roughly 80 percent of the primary vote, positioning the former attorney general as the clear general-election frontrunner against Democratic nominee Nikki Gronli. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because the state’s voter base, combined with Jackley’s statewide name recognition, creates a steep path for any Democratic challenger. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen national political realignment, a major candidate-specific scandal, or unusually depressed Republican turnout before the November 3 contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertSD-AL Wahlsieger
SD-AL Wahlsieger
$16,933 Vol.
$16,933 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
94%
Demokratische Partei
5%
$16,933 Vol.
$16,933 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$9,474 Vol.
94%
Demokratische Partei
$7,459 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota’s at-large House district has long favored Republicans, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination on June 2 with roughly 80 percent of the primary vote, positioning the former attorney general as the clear general-election frontrunner against Democratic nominee Nikki Gronli. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because the state’s voter base, combined with Jackley’s statewide name recognition, creates a steep path for any Democratic challenger. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen national political realignment, a major candidate-specific scandal, or unusually depressed Republican turnout before the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$16,933Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota’s at-large House district has long favored Republicans, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination on June 2 with roughly 80 percent of the primary vote, positioning the former attorney general as the clear general-election frontrunner against Democratic nominee Nikki Gronli. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because the state’s voter base, combined with Jackley’s statewide name recognition, creates a steep path for any Democratic challenger. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen national political realignment, a major candidate-specific scandal, or unusually depressed Republican turnout before the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$16,933Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota’s at-large House district has long favored Republicans, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination on June 2 with roughly 80 percent of the primary vote, positioning the former attorney general as the clear general-election frontrunner against Democratic nominee Nikki Gronli. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because the state’s voter base, combined with Jackley’s statewide name recognition, creates a steep path for any Democratic challenger. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen national political realignment, a major candidate-specific scandal, or unusually depressed Republican turnout before the November 3 contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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