Civil Contract's commanding trader consensus at 83.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Armenia's June 7, 2026, parliamentary elections stems from its incumbency advantage and consistent poll leads around 24-29% among likely voters, per February IRI surveys, amid 30% undecideds likely consolidating behind Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's ruling party. Fragmented opposition—Armenia Alliance at 3-4%, Strong Armenia at 9-11%, others under 4%—struggles under the proportional representation system's 4-7% thresholds for alliances. Recent catalysts include Pashinyan's March 26 warnings of Azerbaijan war risks rallying security-focused voters during stalled peace talks, alongside an upcoming May EU-Armenia summit signaling Western alignment. Opposition efforts, like Robert Kocharyan's Armenia Alliance program launch on March 27, have yet to dent the lead.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertZiviler Vertrag 84%
Armenien-Allianz 13%
Bright Armenia 3.4%
Ich Habe Ehre Allianz 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Jun 7, 2026
Ziviler Vertrag
84%
Armenien-Allianz
13%
Bright Armenia
3%
Ich Habe Ehre Allianz
2%
Armenischer Nationalkongress
<1%
Hanrapetutyun-Partei
<1%
Wohlhabendes Armenien
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
<1%
Heritage
<1%
Ziviler Vertrag 84%
Armenien-Allianz 13%
Bright Armenia 3.4%
Ich Habe Ehre Allianz 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Jun 7, 2026
Ziviler Vertrag
$0 Vol.
84%
Armenien-Allianz
$0 Vol.
13%
Bright Armenia
$0 Vol.
3%
Ich Habe Ehre Allianz
$0 Vol.
2%
Armenischer Nationalkongress
$0 Vol.
<1%
Hanrapetutyun-Partei
$0 Vol.
<1%
Wohlhabendes Armenien
$0 Vol.
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
$0 Vol.
<1%
Heritage
$0 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's commanding trader consensus at 83.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Armenia's June 7, 2026, parliamentary elections stems from its incumbency advantage and consistent poll leads around 24-29% among likely voters, per February IRI surveys, amid 30% undecideds likely consolidating behind Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's ruling party. Fragmented opposition—Armenia Alliance at 3-4%, Strong Armenia at 9-11%, others under 4%—struggles under the proportional representation system's 4-7% thresholds for alliances. Recent catalysts include Pashinyan's March 26 warnings of Azerbaijan war risks rallying security-focused voters during stalled peace talks, alongside an upcoming May EU-Armenia summit signaling Western alignment. Opposition efforts, like Robert Kocharyan's Armenia Alliance program launch on March 27, have yet to dent the lead.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Jun 7, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's commanding trader consensus at 83.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Armenia's June 7, 2026, parliamentary elections stems from its incumbency advantage and consistent poll leads around 24-29% among likely voters, per February IRI surveys, amid 30% undecideds likely consolidating behind Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's ruling party. Fragmented opposition—Armenia Alliance at 3-4%, Strong Armenia at 9-11%, others under 4%—struggles under the proportional representation system's 4-7% thresholds for alliances. Recent catalysts include Pashinyan's March 26 warnings of Azerbaijan war risks rallying security-focused voters during stalled peace talks, alongside an upcoming May EU-Armenia summit signaling Western alignment. Opposition efforts, like Robert Kocharyan's Armenia Alliance program launch on March 27, have yet to dent the lead.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Jun 7, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Civil Contract's commanding trader consensus at 83.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Armenia's June 7, 2026, parliamentary elections stems from its incumbency advantage and consistent poll leads around 24-29% among likely voters, per February IRI surveys, amid 30% undecideds likely consolidating behind Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's ruling party. Fragmented opposition—Armenia Alliance at 3-4%, Strong Armenia at 9-11%, others under 4%—struggles under the proportional representation system's 4-7% thresholds for alliances. Recent catalysts include Pashinyan's March 26 warnings of Azerbaijan war risks rallying security-focused voters during stalled peace talks, alongside an upcoming May EU-Armenia summit signaling Western alignment. Opposition efforts, like Robert Kocharyan's Armenia Alliance program launch on March 27, have yet to dent the lead.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen