Analilia Mejia's 97% implied probability in the NJ-11 special election reflects the district's consistent Democratic dominance, with voter registration edges and historical base rates favoring the party-endorsed nominee in low-turnout contests. Recent catalysts include Mejia's endorsements from labor unions and local leaders, contrasted by fragmented Republican opposition between Alan Bond and Joe Hathaway after their primary. Trader consensus prices in minimal GOP path to victory absent a major upset. Realistic challenges could arise from unexpectedly high Republican turnout, a damaging Mejia scandal, or consolidated conservative backing shifting odds, though current evidence shows scant momentum for such shifts ahead of the vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertAnalilia Mejia 97.4%
Alan Bond 1.9%
Joe Hathaway 1.6%
Analilia Mejia
97%
Alan Bond
2%
Joe Hathaway
2%
Analilia Mejia 97.4%
Alan Bond 1.9%
Joe Hathaway 1.6%
Analilia Mejia
97%
Alan Bond
2%
Joe Hathaway
2%
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Analilia Mejia's 97% implied probability in the NJ-11 special election reflects the district's consistent Democratic dominance, with voter registration edges and historical base rates favoring the party-endorsed nominee in low-turnout contests. Recent catalysts include Mejia's endorsements from labor unions and local leaders, contrasted by fragmented Republican opposition between Alan Bond and Joe Hathaway after their primary. Trader consensus prices in minimal GOP path to victory absent a major upset. Realistic challenges could arise from unexpectedly high Republican turnout, a damaging Mejia scandal, or consolidated conservative backing shifting odds, though current evidence shows scant momentum for such shifts ahead of the vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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