Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 90.5% implied probability that a U.S. Congress member will resign or be forced out over Epstein files by April 30, driven by the absence of any new, verifiable disclosures implicating sitting lawmakers. Documents unsealed in January 2024 from the Giuffre-Maxwell case named past associates like former presidents but offered no fresh evidence against current House or Senate members, prompting no ethics committee probes, DOJ investigations, or resignation calls. Lacking recent catalysts—such as indictments, official statements, or scandals—in the past 30 days, traders view significant barriers to this outcome, though late-breaking court releases or whistleblower claims could theoretically shift odds before the deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
Ja
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.
Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.
Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.
Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.
Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 20, 2025, 5:59 PM ET
Volumen
$5,926Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 20, 2025, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.
Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.
Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.
Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.
Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$5,926Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 20, 2025, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 90.5% implied probability that a U.S. Congress member will resign or be forced out over Epstein files by April 30, driven by the absence of any new, verifiable disclosures implicating sitting lawmakers. Documents unsealed in January 2024 from the Giuffre-Maxwell case named past associates like former presidents but offered no fresh evidence against current House or Senate members, prompting no ethics committee probes, DOJ investigations, or resignation calls. Lacking recent catalysts—such as indictments, official statements, or scandals—in the past 30 days, traders view significant barriers to this outcome, though late-breaking court releases or whistleblower claims could theoretically shift odds before the deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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