Persistent Democratic leads on generic congressional ballot polls, averaging 5-7 points in recent surveys like Marist (55-45) and Emerson (50-40) from late April, have solidified trader consensus for a blue wave in the 2026 midterms, reflected in the 83% implied probability for Yes. President Trump's approval ratings near historic lows around 37%, driven by economic pessimism and foreign policy concerns including the Iran conflict, amplify the historical midterm penalty for the incumbent party, which has lost House control in 9 of the last 10 cycles under similar conditions. GOP redistricting pushes in Florida and Texas risk backfiring amid these trends, though upcoming primaries and economic shifts could narrow the gap before November.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$41,230 Vol.
$41,230 Vol.
30. Nov. 2026
Ja
$41,230 Vol.
$41,230 Vol.
30. Nov. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfPersistent Democratic leads on generic congressional ballot polls, averaging 5-7 points in recent surveys like Marist (55-45) and Emerson (50-40) from late April, have solidified trader consensus for a blue wave in the 2026 midterms, reflected in the 83% implied probability for Yes. President Trump's approval ratings near historic lows around 37%, driven by economic pessimism and foreign policy concerns including the Iran conflict, amplify the historical midterm penalty for the incumbent party, which has lost House control in 9 of the last 10 cycles under similar conditions. GOP redistricting pushes in Florida and Texas risk backfiring amid these trends, though upcoming primaries and economic shifts could narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volumen
$41,230Enddatum
30. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfPersistent Democratic leads on generic congressional ballot polls, averaging 5-7 points in recent surveys like Marist (55-45) and Emerson (50-40) from late April, have solidified trader consensus for a blue wave in the 2026 midterms, reflected in the 83% implied probability for Yes. President Trump's approval ratings near historic lows around 37%, driven by economic pessimism and foreign policy concerns including the Iran conflict, amplify the historical midterm penalty for the incumbent party, which has lost House control in 9 of the last 10 cycles under similar conditions. GOP redistricting pushes in Florida and Texas risk backfiring amid these trends, though upcoming primaries and economic shifts could narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Volumen
$41,230Enddatum
30. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent Democratic leads on generic congressional ballot polls, averaging 5-7 points in recent surveys like Marist (55-45) and Emerson (50-40) from late April, have solidified trader consensus for a blue wave in the 2026 midterms, reflected in the 83% implied probability for Yes. President Trump's approval ratings near historic lows around 37%, driven by economic pessimism and foreign policy concerns including the Iran conflict, amplify the historical midterm penalty for the incumbent party, which has lost House control in 9 of the last 10 cycles under similar conditions. GOP redistricting pushes in Florida and Texas risk backfiring amid these trends, though upcoming primaries and economic shifts could narrow the gap before November.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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