Trader consensus prices a 79% implied probability of a Democratic "blue wave" in the November 2026 midterms—likely meaning net House gains sufficient for majority control—driven by President Trump's approval rating dipping below 40% in recent polls, including a new second-term low of 33% amid economic concerns and foreign policy backlash. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 4-8 points in March surveys from Quinnipiac, Reuters/Ipsos, and others, aligning with historical midterm patterns where the president's party loses ~4% nationally. Fueling this sentiment, Democrats have flipped over 28 Republican state legislative seats in special elections since Trump's inauguration, including a narrow Florida Senate victory near Mar-a-Lago last week, signaling voter turnout edges in off-year races ahead of primaries.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$27,700 Vol.
$27,700 Vol.
30. Nov. 2026
Ja
$27,700 Vol.
$27,700 Vol.
30. Nov. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a 79% implied probability of a Democratic "blue wave" in the November 2026 midterms—likely meaning net House gains sufficient for majority control—driven by President Trump's approval rating dipping below 40% in recent polls, including a new second-term low of 33% amid economic concerns and foreign policy backlash. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 4-8 points in March surveys from Quinnipiac, Reuters/Ipsos, and others, aligning with historical midterm patterns where the president's party loses ~4% nationally. Fueling this sentiment, Democrats have flipped over 28 Republican state legislative seats in special elections since Trump's inauguration, including a narrow Florida Senate victory near Mar-a-Lago last week, signaling voter turnout edges in off-year races ahead of primaries.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volumen
$27,700Enddatum
30. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a 79% implied probability of a Democratic "blue wave" in the November 2026 midterms—likely meaning net House gains sufficient for majority control—driven by President Trump's approval rating dipping below 40% in recent polls, including a new second-term low of 33% amid economic concerns and foreign policy backlash. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 4-8 points in March surveys from Quinnipiac, Reuters/Ipsos, and others, aligning with historical midterm patterns where the president's party loses ~4% nationally. Fueling this sentiment, Democrats have flipped over 28 Republican state legislative seats in special elections since Trump's inauguration, including a narrow Florida Senate victory near Mar-a-Lago last week, signaling voter turnout edges in off-year races ahead of primaries.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Volumen
$27,700Enddatum
30. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 79% implied probability of a Democratic "blue wave" in the November 2026 midterms—likely meaning net House gains sufficient for majority control—driven by President Trump's approval rating dipping below 40% in recent polls, including a new second-term low of 33% amid economic concerns and foreign policy backlash. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 4-8 points in March surveys from Quinnipiac, Reuters/Ipsos, and others, aligning with historical midterm patterns where the president's party loses ~4% nationally. Fueling this sentiment, Democrats have flipped over 28 Republican state legislative seats in special elections since Trump's inauguration, including a narrow Florida Senate victory near Mar-a-Lago last week, signaling voter turnout edges in off-year races ahead of primaries.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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