Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat, after incumbent Republican Joni Ernst announced she would not seek re-election, has shaped trader consensus around a Republican advantage at 62.5 percent. Recent general-election polling shows Republican frontrunner Ashley Hinson running within a few points of Democratic primary contenders Josh Turek or Zach Wahls, reflecting Iowa’s long-term partisan tilt and the state’s history of supporting Republican Senate candidates. The June 2 Democratic primary and subsequent general-election campaign dynamics remain the key near-term variables that could adjust probabilities, consistent with the wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$116,508 Vol.
$116,508 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikaner
63%
Demokrat
38%
$116,508 Vol.
$116,508 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikaner
$53,377 Vol.
63%
Demokrat
$63,130 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat, after incumbent Republican Joni Ernst announced she would not seek re-election, has shaped trader consensus around a Republican advantage at 62.5 percent. Recent general-election polling shows Republican frontrunner Ashley Hinson running within a few points of Democratic primary contenders Josh Turek or Zach Wahls, reflecting Iowa’s long-term partisan tilt and the state’s history of supporting Republican Senate candidates. The June 2 Democratic primary and subsequent general-election campaign dynamics remain the key near-term variables that could adjust probabilities, consistent with the wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
Volumen
$116,508Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat, after incumbent Republican Joni Ernst announced she would not seek re-election, has shaped trader consensus around a Republican advantage at 62.5 percent. Recent general-election polling shows Republican frontrunner Ashley Hinson running within a few points of Democratic primary contenders Josh Turek or Zach Wahls, reflecting Iowa’s long-term partisan tilt and the state’s history of supporting Republican Senate candidates. The June 2 Democratic primary and subsequent general-election campaign dynamics remain the key near-term variables that could adjust probabilities, consistent with the wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$116,508Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat, after incumbent Republican Joni Ernst announced she would not seek re-election, has shaped trader consensus around a Republican advantage at 62.5 percent. Recent general-election polling shows Republican frontrunner Ashley Hinson running within a few points of Democratic primary contenders Josh Turek or Zach Wahls, reflecting Iowa’s long-term partisan tilt and the state’s history of supporting Republican Senate candidates. The June 2 Democratic primary and subsequent general-election campaign dynamics remain the key near-term variables that could adjust probabilities, consistent with the wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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