Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 7-9 Republican House incumbents failing to win their primaries (40%) and more than 15 (38%), reflecting uncertainty amid a record number of Trump-endorsed challengers targeting vulnerable establishment figures in safe GOP districts. Recent Texas runoffs on June 25 saw Rep. Tony Gonzales narrowly prevail at 50.7% against a hardline opponent, while other incumbents like Dan Crenshaw advanced easily, capping confirmed losses so far at around four and tempering extreme outcomes—but with primaries wrapping in states like North Carolina (delayed to September for some districts) and Utah runoffs pending, additional upsets remain possible. Historical base rates show incumbents rarely lose primaries (under 5% typically), yet this cycle's 25+ serious challenges and high-profile endorsements keep the race tight; final results from battleground primaries and voter turnout in conservative strongholds could tip toward moderate or higher losses.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert<3 12.1%
10-12 3.0%
13-15 <1%
4-6 0
NEW
NEW
<3
12%
4-6
33%
7-9
40%
10-12
3%
13-15
25%
>15
38%
<3 12.1%
10-12 3.0%
13-15 <1%
4-6 0
NEW
NEW
<3
$0 Vol.
12%
4-6
$0 Vol.
33%
7-9
$0 Vol.
40%
10-12
$0 Vol.
3%
13-15
$0 Vol.
25%
>15
$0 Vol.
38%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 7-9 Republican House incumbents failing to win their primaries (40%) and more than 15 (38%), reflecting uncertainty amid a record number of Trump-endorsed challengers targeting vulnerable establishment figures in safe GOP districts. Recent Texas runoffs on June 25 saw Rep. Tony Gonzales narrowly prevail at 50.7% against a hardline opponent, while other incumbents like Dan Crenshaw advanced easily, capping confirmed losses so far at around four and tempering extreme outcomes—but with primaries wrapping in states like North Carolina (delayed to September for some districts) and Utah runoffs pending, additional upsets remain possible. Historical base rates show incumbents rarely lose primaries (under 5% typically), yet this cycle's 25+ serious challenges and high-profile endorsements keep the race tight; final results from battleground primaries and voter turnout in conservative strongholds could tip toward moderate or higher losses.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volumen
$0Markt eröffnet
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 7-9 Republican House incumbents failing to win their primaries (40%) and more than 15 (38%), reflecting uncertainty amid a record number of Trump-endorsed challengers targeting vulnerable establishment figures in safe GOP districts. Recent Texas runoffs on June 25 saw Rep. Tony Gonzales narrowly prevail at 50.7% against a hardline opponent, while other incumbents like Dan Crenshaw advanced easily, capping confirmed losses so far at around four and tempering extreme outcomes—but with primaries wrapping in states like North Carolina (delayed to September for some districts) and Utah runoffs pending, additional upsets remain possible. Historical base rates show incumbents rarely lose primaries (under 5% typically), yet this cycle's 25+ serious challenges and high-profile endorsements keep the race tight; final results from battleground primaries and voter turnout in conservative strongholds could tip toward moderate or higher losses.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$0Markt eröffnet
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 7-9 Republican House incumbents failing to win their primaries (40%) and more than 15 (38%), reflecting uncertainty amid a record number of Trump-endorsed challengers targeting vulnerable establishment figures in safe GOP districts. Recent Texas runoffs on June 25 saw Rep. Tony Gonzales narrowly prevail at 50.7% against a hardline opponent, while other incumbents like Dan Crenshaw advanced easily, capping confirmed losses so far at around four and tempering extreme outcomes—but with primaries wrapping in states like North Carolina (delayed to September for some districts) and Utah runoffs pending, additional upsets remain possible. Historical base rates show incumbents rarely lose primaries (under 5% typically), yet this cycle's 25+ serious challenges and high-profile endorsements keep the race tight; final results from battleground primaries and voter turnout in conservative strongholds could tip toward moderate or higher losses.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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