Low early voting turnout of just 144,860 Republican ballots through May 24—down over 65% from March primaries—has anchored trader consensus around 600,000–900,000 total votes in the Texas state Senate Republican primary runoff, reflecting diminished enthusiasm for district-level contests lacking statewide draw. Scorching election-day heat on May 28 across much of Texas likely further suppressed same-day participation, mirroring patterns in past runoffs like 2022's 698,000 GOP turnout amid hotter races. Absent marquee candidates or high-stakes policy fights, higher buckets above 1.2 million appear improbable, while sub-600,000 remains viable if final tallies confirm the tepid pace; official certification expected soon could resolve ambiguities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWahlbeteiligung im republikanischen Hauptabfluss des Senats von Texas
Wahlbeteiligung im republikanischen Hauptabfluss des Senats von Texas
0,6–0,9 Mio. 48%
1,2–1,5 Mio. 27%
2,4–2,7 Mio. 24.0%
2,1–2,4 Mio. 18%
<0,6 Mio.
17%
0,6–0,9 Mio.
40%
0,9–1,2 Mio.
21%
1,2–1,5 Mio.
27%
1,5–1,8 Mio.
17%
1,8–2,1 Mio.
16%
2,1–2,4 Mio.
18%
2,4–2,7 Mio.
14%
2,7 Mio.+
8%
0,6–0,9 Mio. 48%
1,2–1,5 Mio. 27%
2,4–2,7 Mio. 24.0%
2,1–2,4 Mio. 18%
<0,6 Mio.
17%
0,6–0,9 Mio.
40%
0,9–1,2 Mio.
21%
1,2–1,5 Mio.
27%
1,5–1,8 Mio.
17%
1,8–2,1 Mio.
16%
2,1–2,4 Mio.
18%
2,4–2,7 Mio.
14%
2,7 Mio.+
8%
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Low early voting turnout of just 144,860 Republican ballots through May 24—down over 65% from March primaries—has anchored trader consensus around 600,000–900,000 total votes in the Texas state Senate Republican primary runoff, reflecting diminished enthusiasm for district-level contests lacking statewide draw. Scorching election-day heat on May 28 across much of Texas likely further suppressed same-day participation, mirroring patterns in past runoffs like 2022's 698,000 GOP turnout amid hotter races. Absent marquee candidates or high-stakes policy fights, higher buckets above 1.2 million appear improbable, while sub-600,000 remains viable if final tallies confirm the tepid pace; official certification expected soon could resolve ambiguities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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