Tennessee’s redistricting in May 2026, which split the Memphis-centered Ninth District into three Republican-leaning seats, prompted longtime incumbent Steve Cohen to withdraw from the race. This structural change cleared the path for state Representative Justin Pearson, whose profile rose sharply after his 2023 legislative expulsion during gun-control protests and who had already been mounting a primary challenge. Trader consensus now places Pearson at 71 percent, reflecting his established name recognition, fundraising edge, and consolidation of Democratic support ahead of the August 6 primary. DeVante Hill holds second place at roughly 11 percent on a narrower activist base, while Cohen’s residual contracts sit near 5 percent despite his retirement. Additional candidates including London Lamar remain on the ballot but trail in market pricing.