Generic ballot polling averages, such as Nate Silver's D+5.5 and RealClearPolling's D+5.5 as of late March 2026, position moderate Democratic popular vote margins like 6-8% and 8-10% as leading outcomes, reflecting the out-of-power party's typical midterm advantage amid President Trump's net approval dipping to -16.7 due to the ongoing Iran conflict. Recent polls show slight narrowing—Rasmussen (March 26) at D+3 and Morning Consult (March 16-22) at D+3—but higher outliers like Quinnipiac's D+11 sustain trader consensus around a 5-6 point edge. The elevated 45.5% on "Other" underscores uncertainty seven months out, with volatility from economic shifts, primaries now starting in key states, and historical swings in battleground turnout yet to materialize.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Democrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 8-10% 17%
Democrats 4-6% 16%
Republicans 0-2% 12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
4%
Democrats 14-16%
10%
Democrats 12-14%
2%
Democrats 10-12%
16%
Democrats 8-10%
22%
Democrats 6-8%
22%
Democrats 4-6%
16%
Democrats 2-4%
17%
Democrats 0-2%
11%
Republicans 0-2%
12%
Republicans 2-4%
11%
Republicans 4-6%
4%
Republicans 6%+
2%
Democrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 8-10% 17%
Democrats 4-6% 16%
Republicans 0-2% 12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$0 Vol.
4%
Democrats 14-16%
$0 Vol.
10%
Democrats 12-14%
$0 Vol.
2%
Democrats 10-12%
$0 Vol.
16%
Democrats 8-10%
$0 Vol.
22%
Democrats 6-8%
$0 Vol.
22%
Democrats 4-6%
$0 Vol.
16%
Democrats 2-4%
$734 Vol.
17%
Democrats 0-2%
$806 Vol.
11%
Republicans 0-2%
$0 Vol.
12%
Republicans 2-4%
$0 Vol.
11%
Republicans 4-6%
$0 Vol.
4%
Republicans 6%+
$626 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Generic ballot polling averages, such as Nate Silver's D+5.5 and RealClearPolling's D+5.5 as of late March 2026, position moderate Democratic popular vote margins like 6-8% and 8-10% as leading outcomes, reflecting the out-of-power party's typical midterm advantage amid President Trump's net approval dipping to -16.7 due to the ongoing Iran conflict. Recent polls show slight narrowing—Rasmussen (March 26) at D+3 and Morning Consult (March 16-22) at D+3—but higher outliers like Quinnipiac's D+11 sustain trader consensus around a 5-6 point edge. The elevated 45.5% on "Other" underscores uncertainty seven months out, with volatility from economic shifts, primaries now starting in key states, and historical swings in battleground turnout yet to materialize.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$2,165Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Generic ballot polling averages, such as Nate Silver's D+5.5 and RealClearPolling's D+5.5 as of late March 2026, position moderate Democratic popular vote margins like 6-8% and 8-10% as leading outcomes, reflecting the out-of-power party's typical midterm advantage amid President Trump's net approval dipping to -16.7 due to the ongoing Iran conflict. Recent polls show slight narrowing—Rasmussen (March 26) at D+3 and Morning Consult (March 16-22) at D+3—but higher outliers like Quinnipiac's D+11 sustain trader consensus around a 5-6 point edge. The elevated 45.5% on "Other" underscores uncertainty seven months out, with volatility from economic shifts, primaries now starting in key states, and historical swings in battleground turnout yet to materialize.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volumen
$2,165Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Generic ballot polling averages, such as Nate Silver's D+5.5 and RealClearPolling's D+5.5 as of late March 2026, position moderate Democratic popular vote margins like 6-8% and 8-10% as leading outcomes, reflecting the out-of-power party's typical midterm advantage amid President Trump's net approval dipping to -16.7 due to the ongoing Iran conflict. Recent polls show slight narrowing—Rasmussen (March 26) at D+3 and Morning Consult (March 16-22) at D+3—but higher outliers like Quinnipiac's D+11 sustain trader consensus around a 5-6 point edge. The elevated 45.5% on "Other" underscores uncertainty seven months out, with volatility from economic shifts, primaries now starting in key states, and historical swings in battleground turnout yet to materialize.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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