Recent generic ballot polls from March 2026, including Quantus Insights (Democrats +6%) and Morning Consult (Democrats +8%), alongside a narrower YouGov/Economist edge (+2%), underpin trader consensus for a competitive House popular vote margin, elevating "Other" to 45.5% due to early-cycle volatility and potential for ties or reversals. Democrats' modest leads in 6-8% (22%) and 2-4% (16.2%) bins reflect historical midterm patterns where the president's party trails by 5-10 points on average, amplified by President Trump's approval ratings dipping below 45% amid February's weak jobs report (-92,000 positions, unemployment at 4.4%) and persistent inflation concerns tied to oil shocks. GOP small-margin outcomes lag as economic headwinds and immigration discontent favor the out-party, though upcoming primaries and economic shifts could tip battleground dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Democrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 8-10% 14%
Democrats 4-6% 13%
Democrats 0-2% 10.7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
4%
Democrats 14-16%
6%
Democrats 12-14%
4%
Democrats 10-12%
10%
Democrats 8-10%
14%
Democrats 6-8%
22%
Democrats 4-6%
13%
Democrats 2-4%
16%
Democrats 0-2%
11%
Republicans 0-2%
6%
Republicans 2-4%
11%
Republicans 4-6%
4%
Republicans 6%+
2%
Democrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 8-10% 14%
Democrats 4-6% 13%
Democrats 0-2% 10.7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$0 Vol.
4%
Democrats 14-16%
$0 Vol.
6%
Democrats 12-14%
$0 Vol.
4%
Democrats 10-12%
$0 Vol.
10%
Democrats 8-10%
$0 Vol.
14%
Democrats 6-8%
$0 Vol.
22%
Democrats 4-6%
$0 Vol.
13%
Democrats 2-4%
$734 Vol.
16%
Democrats 0-2%
$806 Vol.
11%
Republicans 0-2%
$0 Vol.
6%
Republicans 2-4%
$0 Vol.
11%
Republicans 4-6%
$0 Vol.
4%
Republicans 6%+
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polls from March 2026, including Quantus Insights (Democrats +6%) and Morning Consult (Democrats +8%), alongside a narrower YouGov/Economist edge (+2%), underpin trader consensus for a competitive House popular vote margin, elevating "Other" to 45.5% due to early-cycle volatility and potential for ties or reversals. Democrats' modest leads in 6-8% (22%) and 2-4% (16.2%) bins reflect historical midterm patterns where the president's party trails by 5-10 points on average, amplified by President Trump's approval ratings dipping below 45% amid February's weak jobs report (-92,000 positions, unemployment at 4.4%) and persistent inflation concerns tied to oil shocks. GOP small-margin outcomes lag as economic headwinds and immigration discontent favor the out-party, though upcoming primaries and economic shifts could tip battleground dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$1,540Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polls from March 2026, including Quantus Insights (Democrats +6%) and Morning Consult (Democrats +8%), alongside a narrower YouGov/Economist edge (+2%), underpin trader consensus for a competitive House popular vote margin, elevating "Other" to 45.5% due to early-cycle volatility and potential for ties or reversals. Democrats' modest leads in 6-8% (22%) and 2-4% (16.2%) bins reflect historical midterm patterns where the president's party trails by 5-10 points on average, amplified by President Trump's approval ratings dipping below 45% amid February's weak jobs report (-92,000 positions, unemployment at 4.4%) and persistent inflation concerns tied to oil shocks. GOP small-margin outcomes lag as economic headwinds and immigration discontent favor the out-party, though upcoming primaries and economic shifts could tip battleground dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volumen
$1,540Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic ballot polls from March 2026, including Quantus Insights (Democrats +6%) and Morning Consult (Democrats +8%), alongside a narrower YouGov/Economist edge (+2%), underpin trader consensus for a competitive House popular vote margin, elevating "Other" to 45.5% due to early-cycle volatility and potential for ties or reversals. Democrats' modest leads in 6-8% (22%) and 2-4% (16.2%) bins reflect historical midterm patterns where the president's party trails by 5-10 points on average, amplified by President Trump's approval ratings dipping below 45% amid February's weak jobs report (-92,000 positions, unemployment at 4.4%) and persistent inflation concerns tied to oil shocks. GOP small-margin outcomes lag as economic headwinds and immigration discontent favor the out-party, though upcoming primaries and economic shifts could tip battleground dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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