Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout favors 115-125 million votes at roughly 45% combined implied probability, aligning with historical peaks like 2018's 118 million amid high polarization and mobilization. Lower ranges of 85-90 million garner 20%, echoing quieter cycles such as 2014's 85 million. Tight dynamics reflect post-2024 uncertainties, including presidential approval, economic trends, and partisan enthusiasm gaps, with 2022's 110 million serving as a recent midpoint. Separation could arise from early polling on voter intent, key legislative fights, or shifts in party ground games ahead of primaries.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert85-90 Mio. 37%
115-120 Mio. 24%
90-95 Mio. 21%
<85 Mio. 20%
<85 Mio.
18%
85-90 Mio.
22%
90-95 Mio.
24%
95-100 Mio.
8%
100–105 Mio.
12%
105–110 Mio.
15%
110-115 Mio.
18%
115-120 Mio.
24%
120-125 Mio.
23%
125-130 Mio.
19%
130 Mio.+
17%
85-90 Mio. 37%
115-120 Mio. 24%
90-95 Mio. 21%
<85 Mio. 20%
<85 Mio.
18%
85-90 Mio.
22%
90-95 Mio.
24%
95-100 Mio.
8%
100–105 Mio.
12%
105–110 Mio.
15%
110-115 Mio.
18%
115-120 Mio.
24%
120-125 Mio.
23%
125-130 Mio.
19%
130 Mio.+
17%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout favors 115-125 million votes at roughly 45% combined implied probability, aligning with historical peaks like 2018's 118 million amid high polarization and mobilization. Lower ranges of 85-90 million garner 20%, echoing quieter cycles such as 2014's 85 million. Tight dynamics reflect post-2024 uncertainties, including presidential approval, economic trends, and partisan enthusiasm gaps, with 2022's 110 million serving as a recent midpoint. Separation could arise from early polling on voter intent, key legislative fights, or shifts in party ground games ahead of primaries.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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