Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout clusters tightly around 110-125 million votes, reflecting historical precedents like 2022's 111 million amid typical midterm declines from presidential cycles. Recent 2024 election dynamics, with Republican control of the White House and Congress, fuel balanced expectations: potential Democratic opposition mobilization versus GOP base consolidation, keeping higher bins (115-120m at 22.5%) marginally ahead of slightly lower ones. Polarization sustains engagement forecasts, but uncertainty in presidential approval, economic indicators, and early GOTV efforts maintains the close race. Upcoming catalysts like Q1 2025 jobs reports or fundraising disclosures could drive separation toward elevated turnout if enthusiasm spikes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert115-120 Mio. 23%
<85 Mio. 20%
110-115 Mio. 19%
85-90 Mio. 18%
<85 Mio.
16%
85-90 Mio.
18%
90-95 Mio.
13%
95-100 Mio.
15%
100–105 Mio.
15%
105–110 Mio.
14%
110-115 Mio.
19%
115-120 Mio.
23%
120-125 Mio.
20%
125-130 Mio.
18%
130 Mio.+
14%
115-120 Mio. 23%
<85 Mio. 20%
110-115 Mio. 19%
85-90 Mio. 18%
<85 Mio.
16%
85-90 Mio.
18%
90-95 Mio.
13%
95-100 Mio.
15%
100–105 Mio.
15%
105–110 Mio.
14%
110-115 Mio.
19%
115-120 Mio.
23%
120-125 Mio.
20%
125-130 Mio.
18%
130 Mio.+
14%
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout clusters tightly around 110-125 million votes, reflecting historical precedents like 2022's 111 million amid typical midterm declines from presidential cycles. Recent 2024 election dynamics, with Republican control of the White House and Congress, fuel balanced expectations: potential Democratic opposition mobilization versus GOP base consolidation, keeping higher bins (115-120m at 22.5%) marginally ahead of slightly lower ones. Polarization sustains engagement forecasts, but uncertainty in presidential approval, economic indicators, and early GOTV efforts maintains the close race. Upcoming catalysts like Q1 2025 jobs reports or fundraising disclosures could drive separation toward elevated turnout if enthusiasm spikes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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