Anthropic commands 67% implied probability as traders anticipate Claude 3 Opus retaining its top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard through April's end, following its March 2024 launch that showcased superior reasoning and multimodal capabilities over rivals like OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo. No major competing releases—such as Google's Gemini 1.5 updates or Mistral Large refinements—have displaced it, with recent benchmarks confirming Opus's edge in coding, math, and vision tasks. OpenAI lags at 5% amid stagnant GPT-4 performance, while dark horses like DeepSeek and Moonshot gain traction from cost-efficient Chinese model advances, though trader consensus favors Anthropic's sustained lead absent surprises. Key watch: final LMSYS snapshots before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertAnthropic 67%
Google 9%
Mistral 7.3%
OpenAI 5%
$32,273 Vol.
$32,273 Vol.

Anthropic
67%

9%

Mistral
7%

OpenAI
5%

DeepSeek
3%

Moonshot
3%

xAI
3%

Baidu
2%

Alibaba
1%

Meituan
1%

Amazon
1%

Z.ai
1%

ByteDance
1%
Anthropic 67%
Google 9%
Mistral 7.3%
OpenAI 5%
$32,273 Vol.
$32,273 Vol.

Anthropic
67%

9%

Mistral
7%

OpenAI
5%

DeepSeek
3%

Moonshot
3%

xAI
3%

Baidu
2%

Alibaba
1%

Meituan
1%

Amazon
1%

Z.ai
1%

ByteDance
1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic commands 67% implied probability as traders anticipate Claude 3 Opus retaining its top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard through April's end, following its March 2024 launch that showcased superior reasoning and multimodal capabilities over rivals like OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo. No major competing releases—such as Google's Gemini 1.5 updates or Mistral Large refinements—have displaced it, with recent benchmarks confirming Opus's edge in coding, math, and vision tasks. OpenAI lags at 5% amid stagnant GPT-4 performance, while dark horses like DeepSeek and Moonshot gain traction from cost-efficient Chinese model advances, though trader consensus favors Anthropic's sustained lead absent surprises. Key watch: final LMSYS snapshots before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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