Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 41% implied probability after Claude Opus 4.6 topped the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in February 2026 with scores nearing 1500 ELO on text and code benchmarks, dethroning Google's Gemini models, while its April announcement of the ultra-capable but restricted Claude Mythos Preview—boasting 93.9% on SWE-bench Verified and double-digit benchmark leads—fuels expectations of a imminent frontier push. The tight race with "None in 2026" at 36.5% reflects scaling uncertainties, safety-driven delays, and historical slips in product timelines amid intense competition from OpenAI's upcoming Spud model and Google's efficient Gemma 4 open releases hitting 1464 ELO. Key swing factors include Q2 launches from xAI and DeepSeek, with resolution hinging on blind user-voted ELO breakthroughs before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 41%
Keines im Jahr 2026 38%
OpenAI 12%
Google 11%
$30,228 Vol.
$30,228 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Anthropic
41%
Keines im Jahr 2026
38%
OpenAI
12%
11%
DeepSeek
2%
Alibaba
1%
xAI
1%
Mistral
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 41%
Keines im Jahr 2026 38%
OpenAI 12%
Google 11%
$30,228 Vol.
$30,228 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Anthropic
$3,359 Vol.
41%
Keines im Jahr 2026
$4,758 Vol.
38%
OpenAI
$5,019 Vol.
12%
$4,943 Vol.
11%
DeepSeek
$2,282 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$2,052 Vol.
1%
xAI
$3,808 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$2,016 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,990 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 41% implied probability after Claude Opus 4.6 topped the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in February 2026 with scores nearing 1500 ELO on text and code benchmarks, dethroning Google's Gemini models, while its April announcement of the ultra-capable but restricted Claude Mythos Preview—boasting 93.9% on SWE-bench Verified and double-digit benchmark leads—fuels expectations of a imminent frontier push. The tight race with "None in 2026" at 36.5% reflects scaling uncertainties, safety-driven delays, and historical slips in product timelines amid intense competition from OpenAI's upcoming Spud model and Google's efficient Gemma 4 open releases hitting 1464 ELO. Key swing factors include Q2 launches from xAI and DeepSeek, with resolution hinging on blind user-voted ELO breakthroughs before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volumen
$30,228Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 41% implied probability after Claude Opus 4.6 topped the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in February 2026 with scores nearing 1500 ELO on text and code benchmarks, dethroning Google's Gemini models, while its April announcement of the ultra-capable but restricted Claude Mythos Preview—boasting 93.9% on SWE-bench Verified and double-digit benchmark leads—fuels expectations of a imminent frontier push. The tight race with "None in 2026" at 36.5% reflects scaling uncertainties, safety-driven delays, and historical slips in product timelines amid intense competition from OpenAI's upcoming Spud model and Google's efficient Gemma 4 open releases hitting 1464 ELO. Key swing factors include Q2 launches from xAI and DeepSeek, with resolution hinging on blind user-voted ELO breakthroughs before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volumen
$30,228Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 41% implied probability after Claude Opus 4.6 topped the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in February 2026 with scores nearing 1500 ELO on text and code benchmarks, dethroning Google's Gemini models, while its April announcement of the ultra-capable but restricted Claude Mythos Preview—boasting 93.9% on SWE-bench Verified and double-digit benchmark leads—fuels expectations of a imminent frontier push. The tight race with "None in 2026" at 36.5% reflects scaling uncertainties, safety-driven delays, and historical slips in product timelines amid intense competition from OpenAI's upcoming Spud model and Google's efficient Gemma 4 open releases hitting 1464 ELO. Key swing factors include Q2 launches from xAI and DeepSeek, with resolution hinging on blind user-voted ELO breakthroughs before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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