Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by April 30, with Claude Opus 4.7 implying near-certainty at 100% odds, reflecting its dominant positioning on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and Code Arena leaderboards. The model's April 16 release vaulted it to a clear #2 spot behind frontrunners like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, achieving top Elo scores around 1504-1505, superior SWE-bench Verified performance at 82-87%, and sweeping the top four in coding tasks—gaps too wide for rivals like Google Gemini, xAI Grok-4, or DeepSeek to close in the final days. Recent persistent memory enhancements further solidified its edge in agentic workflows. While leaderboard stability and no competing launches support this lock-in, a surprise late release from OpenAI or volatility from mass user battles could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
Alibaba <1%
ByteDance <1%
$232,012 Vol.
$232,012 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
Anthropic
Ja
Nein
Alibaba
Nein
ByteDance
Nein
Moonshot
Nein
Z.ai
Nein
OpenAI
Nein
xAI
Nein
Baidu
Nein
Amazon
Nein
Mistral
Nein
Meituan
Nein
Meta
Nein
Microsoft
Nein
DeepSeek
Nein
Anthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
Alibaba <1%
ByteDance <1%
$232,012 Vol.
$232,012 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
Anthropic
$45,677 Vol.
Ja
$20,189 Vol.
Nein
Alibaba
$8,238 Vol.
Nein
ByteDance
$9,064 Vol.
Nein
Moonshot
$9,521 Vol.
Nein
Z.ai
$8,623 Vol.
Nein
OpenAI
$32,766 Vol.
Nein
xAI
$10,315 Vol.
Nein
Baidu
$9,014 Vol.
Nein
Amazon
$8,592 Vol.
Nein
Mistral
$13,219 Vol.
Nein
Meituan
$10,663 Vol.
Nein
Meta
$10,382 Vol.
Nein
Microsoft
$6,981 Vol.
Nein
DeepSeek
$28,768 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by April 30, with Claude Opus 4.7 implying near-certainty at 100% odds, reflecting its dominant positioning on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and Code Arena leaderboards. The model's April 16 release vaulted it to a clear #2 spot behind frontrunners like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, achieving top Elo scores around 1504-1505, superior SWE-bench Verified performance at 82-87%, and sweeping the top four in coding tasks—gaps too wide for rivals like Google Gemini, xAI Grok-4, or DeepSeek to close in the final days. Recent persistent memory enhancements further solidified its edge in agentic workflows. While leaderboard stability and no competing launches support this lock-in, a surprise late release from OpenAI or volatility from mass user battles could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Volumen
$232,012Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by April 30, with Claude Opus 4.7 implying near-certainty at 100% odds, reflecting its dominant positioning on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and Code Arena leaderboards. The model's April 16 release vaulted it to a clear #2 spot behind frontrunners like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, achieving top Elo scores around 1504-1505, superior SWE-bench Verified performance at 82-87%, and sweeping the top four in coding tasks—gaps too wide for rivals like Google Gemini, xAI Grok-4, or DeepSeek to close in the final days. Recent persistent memory enhancements further solidified its edge in agentic workflows. While leaderboard stability and no competing launches support this lock-in, a surprise late release from OpenAI or volatility from mass user battles could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$232,012Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by April 30, with Claude Opus 4.7 implying near-certainty at 100% odds, reflecting its dominant positioning on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and Code Arena leaderboards. The model's April 16 release vaulted it to a clear #2 spot behind frontrunners like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, achieving top Elo scores around 1504-1505, superior SWE-bench Verified performance at 82-87%, and sweeping the top four in coding tasks—gaps too wide for rivals like Google Gemini, xAI Grok-4, or DeepSeek to close in the final days. Recent persistent memory enhancements further solidified its edge in agentic workflows. While leaderboard stability and no competing launches support this lock-in, a surprise late release from OpenAI or volatility from mass user battles could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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