Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability—28%—to Tim Cook departing as Apple CEO before year-end 2026, driven by his age, 14-year tenure, and ongoing succession speculation favoring hardware chief John Ternus, despite Cook's mid-March 2026 ABC interview firmly dismissing retirement rumors as he marked Apple's 50th anniversary. Sam Altman's 20% odds reflect lingering governance scars from OpenAI's 2023 board crisis, amplified by AI lab rivalries and massive projected losses. Brian Armstrong trails at 19%, tied to his $500 million-plus Coinbase stock sales amid crypto volatility, while Sundar Pichai (13%), Dan Clancy of Twitch (12%), and Andy Jassy (11%) benefit from perceived stability. Key catalysts ahead include Apple's WWDC in June and quarterly earnings calls.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$555,442 Vol.

Tim Cook - Apple
28%

Sam Altman - OpenAI
19%

Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
19%

Sundar Pichai - Google
13%

Andy Jassy - Amazon
12%

Dan Clancy - Twitch
12%
$555,442 Vol.

Tim Cook - Apple
28%

Sam Altman - OpenAI
19%

Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
19%

Sundar Pichai - Google
13%

Andy Jassy - Amazon
12%

Dan Clancy - Twitch
12%
An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 18, 2025, 10:41 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability—28%—to Tim Cook departing as Apple CEO before year-end 2026, driven by his age, 14-year tenure, and ongoing succession speculation favoring hardware chief John Ternus, despite Cook's mid-March 2026 ABC interview firmly dismissing retirement rumors as he marked Apple's 50th anniversary. Sam Altman's 20% odds reflect lingering governance scars from OpenAI's 2023 board crisis, amplified by AI lab rivalries and massive projected losses. Brian Armstrong trails at 19%, tied to his $500 million-plus Coinbase stock sales amid crypto volatility, while Sundar Pichai (13%), Dan Clancy of Twitch (12%), and Andy Jassy (11%) benefit from perceived stability. Key catalysts ahead include Apple's WWDC in June and quarterly earnings calls.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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