Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Anthropic at 48.5% implied probability to claim the top AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead across LMArena.ai leaderboards in text, code, search, and document reasoning as of late March, with Elo scores like 1525 in documents and 2002 in coding benchmarks. Google trails at 22.5% after Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong second-place showings in coding (1855 Elo) and reasoning, while OpenAI's recent GPT-5.4 release (March 5) lands third, reflecting slower gains. xAI's Grok 4.20 excels in low-hallucination tests but lags overall. Rapid model iteration cycles, including potential Q2 launches from these labs, heighten uncertainty in this closely contested frontier AI race.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertAnthropic 46%
Google 23%
OpenAI 12%
xAI 7%
$140,068 Vol.
$140,068 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
49%
23%
OpenAI
12%
xAI
7%
Mistral
2%
Moonshot
2%
DeepSeek
2%
Meituan
2%
Z.ai
2%
Alibaba
1%
Anthropic 46%
Google 23%
OpenAI 12%
xAI 7%
$140,068 Vol.
$140,068 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$16,264 Vol.
49%
$8,692 Vol.
23%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
12%
xAI
$0 Vol.
7%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
2%
Meituan
$115,112 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Anthropic at 48.5% implied probability to claim the top AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead across LMArena.ai leaderboards in text, code, search, and document reasoning as of late March, with Elo scores like 1525 in documents and 2002 in coding benchmarks. Google trails at 22.5% after Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong second-place showings in coding (1855 Elo) and reasoning, while OpenAI's recent GPT-5.4 release (March 5) lands third, reflecting slower gains. xAI's Grok 4.20 excels in low-hallucination tests but lags overall. Rapid model iteration cycles, including potential Q2 launches from these labs, heighten uncertainty in this closely contested frontier AI race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$140,068Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Anthropic at 48.5% implied probability to claim the top AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead across LMArena.ai leaderboards in text, code, search, and document reasoning as of late March, with Elo scores like 1525 in documents and 2002 in coding benchmarks. Google trails at 22.5% after Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong second-place showings in coding (1855 Elo) and reasoning, while OpenAI's recent GPT-5.4 release (March 5) lands third, reflecting slower gains. xAI's Grok 4.20 excels in low-hallucination tests but lags overall. Rapid model iteration cycles, including potential Q2 launches from these labs, heighten uncertainty in this closely contested frontier AI race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$140,068Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Anthropic at 48.5% implied probability to claim the top AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead across LMArena.ai leaderboards in text, code, search, and document reasoning as of late March, with Elo scores like 1525 in documents and 2002 in coding benchmarks. Google trails at 22.5% after Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong second-place showings in coding (1855 Elo) and reasoning, while OpenAI's recent GPT-5.4 release (March 5) lands third, reflecting slower gains. xAI's Grok 4.20 excels in low-hallucination tests but lags overall. Rapid model iteration cycles, including potential Q2 launches from these labs, heighten uncertainty in this closely contested frontier AI race.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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