Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Elon Musk's net worth on March 31 around $640-650 billion at 31% implied probability, narrowly ahead of below $640 billion at 25%, reflecting tight competition driven by Tesla's post-election share price surge to over $400 amid anticipated regulatory tailwinds from Musk's Department of Government Efficiency role. Key differentiating factors include Tesla's Q4 2024 delivery beat of 495,000 vehicles and accelerating full self-driving subscriptions, offsetting high valuation multiples near 130x forward earnings; however, softening EV demand in Europe and China introduces downside risk. SpaceX's $350 billion private valuation and xAI's $50 billion funding round bolster upside, with Q1 delivery figures in early April as the pivotal near-term catalyst that could swing odds decisively.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert640-650 Mrd. 31%
<640 Mrd. 25%
650-660 Mrd. 23%
660-670 Mrd. 10%
$453,549 Vol.
$453,549 Vol.
<640 Mrd.
25%
640-650 Mrd.
31%
650-660 Mrd.
23%
660-670 Mrd.
10%
670-680 Mrd.
5%
680-690 Mrd.
6%
690-700 Mrd.
2%
700-710 Mrd.
2%
710 Mrd.+
3%
640-650 Mrd. 31%
<640 Mrd. 25%
650-660 Mrd. 23%
660-670 Mrd. 10%
$453,549 Vol.
$453,549 Vol.
<640 Mrd.
25%
640-650 Mrd.
31%
650-660 Mrd.
23%
660-670 Mrd.
10%
670-680 Mrd.
5%
680-690 Mrd.
6%
690-700 Mrd.
2%
700-710 Mrd.
2%
710 Mrd.+
3%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 25, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Elon Musk's net worth on March 31 around $640-650 billion at 31% implied probability, narrowly ahead of below $640 billion at 25%, reflecting tight competition driven by Tesla's post-election share price surge to over $400 amid anticipated regulatory tailwinds from Musk's Department of Government Efficiency role. Key differentiating factors include Tesla's Q4 2024 delivery beat of 495,000 vehicles and accelerating full self-driving subscriptions, offsetting high valuation multiples near 130x forward earnings; however, softening EV demand in Europe and China introduces downside risk. SpaceX's $350 billion private valuation and xAI's $50 billion funding round bolster upside, with Q1 delivery figures in early April as the pivotal near-term catalyst that could swing odds decisively.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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