OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro commands near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the top AI model in math as of March 31, 2026, driven by its dominant performance on key benchmarks like MATH-500 (99.4%), AIME 2026 (100%), and USAMO 2026 (95%), saturating frontiers once challenging for large language models. Recent March releases, including GPT-5.4's "Thinking" variant with enhanced reasoning chains and 1M-token context, outpaced rivals like Claude Opus 4.6 (97.6% on weighted math scores) and DeepSeek V4 amid an avalanche of 20+ frontier models. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects verified leaderboard supremacy from MathArena and BenchLM. Realistic challenges include last-minute competitor updates or revised evals revealing ties, though rapid benchmark saturation limits upside surprises today.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOpenAI 100.0%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$499,119 Vol.
$499,119 Vol.
31. März 2026
Nein
OpenAI
Ja
Z.ai
Nein
DeepSeek
Nein
Mistral
Nein
Anthropic
Nein
Alibaba
Nein
xAI
Nein
Moonshot
Nein
OpenAI 100.0%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$499,119 Vol.
$499,119 Vol.
31. März 2026
$133,679 Vol.
Nein
OpenAI
$70,132 Vol.
Ja
Z.ai
$24,738 Vol.
Nein
DeepSeek
$77,015 Vol.
Nein
Mistral
$0 Vol.
Nein
Anthropic
$64,146 Vol.
Nein
Alibaba
$31,587 Vol.
Nein
xAI
$66,783 Vol.
Nein
Moonshot
$31,038 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro commands near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the top AI model in math as of March 31, 2026, driven by its dominant performance on key benchmarks like MATH-500 (99.4%), AIME 2026 (100%), and USAMO 2026 (95%), saturating frontiers once challenging for large language models. Recent March releases, including GPT-5.4's "Thinking" variant with enhanced reasoning chains and 1M-token context, outpaced rivals like Claude Opus 4.6 (97.6% on weighted math scores) and DeepSeek V4 amid an avalanche of 20+ frontier models. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects verified leaderboard supremacy from MathArena and BenchLM. Realistic challenges include last-minute competitor updates or revised evals revealing ties, though rapid benchmark saturation limits upside surprises today.
This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 1:25 PM ET
Volumen
$499,119Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 1:25 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro commands near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the top AI model in math as of March 31, 2026, driven by its dominant performance on key benchmarks like MATH-500 (99.4%), AIME 2026 (100%), and USAMO 2026 (95%), saturating frontiers once challenging for large language models. Recent March releases, including GPT-5.4's "Thinking" variant with enhanced reasoning chains and 1M-token context, outpaced rivals like Claude Opus 4.6 (97.6% on weighted math scores) and DeepSeek V4 amid an avalanche of 20+ frontier models. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects verified leaderboard supremacy from MathArena and BenchLM. Realistic challenges include last-minute competitor updates or revised evals revealing ties, though rapid benchmark saturation limits upside surprises today.
This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$499,119Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 1:25 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro commands near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the top AI model in math as of March 31, 2026, driven by its dominant performance on key benchmarks like MATH-500 (99.4%), AIME 2026 (100%), and USAMO 2026 (95%), saturating frontiers once challenging for large language models. Recent March releases, including GPT-5.4's "Thinking" variant with enhanced reasoning chains and 1M-token context, outpaced rivals like Claude Opus 4.6 (97.6% on weighted math scores) and DeepSeek V4 amid an avalanche of 20+ frontier models. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects verified leaderboard supremacy from MathArena and BenchLM. Realistic challenges include last-minute competitor updates or revised evals revealing ties, though rapid benchmark saturation limits upside surprises today.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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