Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts heavily toward no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (65% implied probability), reflecting the AI leader's robust private funding ecosystem and absence of any S-1 filing or public timeline. OpenAI's October 2024 restructuring into a for-profit public benefit corporation facilitates future listings but prioritizes control amid regulatory scrutiny from FTC antitrust probes tied to its Microsoft partnership. A $6.6 billion round in late October, led by Thrive Capital at a $157 billion post-money valuation, signals ample liquidity without public market pressures. Lower odds for trillion-dollar caps (e.g., 8.9% for $1T–1.25T) stem from cooling AI hype and competition from Anthropic and Google DeepMind. Key catalysts: GPT-5 model release or employee liquidity events in 2025.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertKein IPO bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 65%
1T–1,25T 8.9%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio. 7.1%
<500 Mrd. 5.1%
$1,520,020 Vol.
$1,520,020 Vol.
<500 Mrd.
5%
500–750 Mrd.
3%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio.
7%
1T–1,25T
9%
1,25T–1,5T
5%
1,5T+
4%
Kein IPO bis zum 31. Dezember 2026
65%
Kein IPO bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 65%
1T–1,25T 8.9%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio. 7.1%
<500 Mrd. 5.1%
$1,520,020 Vol.
$1,520,020 Vol.
<500 Mrd.
5%
500–750 Mrd.
3%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio.
7%
1T–1,25T
9%
1,25T–1,5T
5%
1,5T+
4%
Kein IPO bis zum 31. Dezember 2026
65%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts heavily toward no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (65% implied probability), reflecting the AI leader's robust private funding ecosystem and absence of any S-1 filing or public timeline. OpenAI's October 2024 restructuring into a for-profit public benefit corporation facilitates future listings but prioritizes control amid regulatory scrutiny from FTC antitrust probes tied to its Microsoft partnership. A $6.6 billion round in late October, led by Thrive Capital at a $157 billion post-money valuation, signals ample liquidity without public market pressures. Lower odds for trillion-dollar caps (e.g., 8.9% for $1T–1.25T) stem from cooling AI hype and competition from Anthropic and Google DeepMind. Key catalysts: GPT-5 model release or employee liquidity events in 2025.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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