Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting the AI leader's recent restructuring into a for-profit public benefit corporation announced in September 2024, which unlocks unlimited private investment without public listing pressures. A $6.6 billion funding round in October valued OpenAI at $157 billion, underscoring ample private capital availability amid booming demand for its large language models like GPT-4o and o1. Lower odds for trillion-dollar market caps (topping out at 9.6% for $1T–1.25T) stem from regulatory headwinds, including FTC antitrust probes into Microsoft ties and EU AI Act compliance, plus competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI. Upcoming catalysts include Q1 2025 model releases and potential further funding, which could delay public debut further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertKein IPO bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 63%
1T–1,25T 9.6%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio. 8.5%
<500 Mrd. 4.9%
$1,525,002 Vol.
$1,525,002 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500 Mrd.
5%
500–750 Mrd.
3%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio.
8%
1T–1,25T
10%
1,25T–1,5T
4%
1,5T+
4%
Kein IPO bis zum 31. Dezember 2026
63%
Kein IPO bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 63%
1T–1,25T 9.6%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio. 8.5%
<500 Mrd. 4.9%
$1,525,002 Vol.
$1,525,002 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500 Mrd.
$255,108 Vol.
5%
500–750 Mrd.
$136,679 Vol.
3%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio.
$127,862 Vol.
8%
1T–1,25T
$169,076 Vol.
10%
1,25T–1,5T
$480,046 Vol.
4%
1,5T+
$87,579 Vol.
4%
Kein IPO bis zum 31. Dezember 2026
$268,651 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting the AI leader's recent restructuring into a for-profit public benefit corporation announced in September 2024, which unlocks unlimited private investment without public listing pressures. A $6.6 billion funding round in October valued OpenAI at $157 billion, underscoring ample private capital availability amid booming demand for its large language models like GPT-4o and o1. Lower odds for trillion-dollar market caps (topping out at 9.6% for $1T–1.25T) stem from regulatory headwinds, including FTC antitrust probes into Microsoft ties and EU AI Act compliance, plus competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI. Upcoming catalysts include Q1 2025 model releases and potential further funding, which could delay public debut further.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,525,002Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting the AI leader's recent restructuring into a for-profit public benefit corporation announced in September 2024, which unlocks unlimited private investment without public listing pressures. A $6.6 billion funding round in October valued OpenAI at $157 billion, underscoring ample private capital availability amid booming demand for its large language models like GPT-4o and o1. Lower odds for trillion-dollar market caps (topping out at 9.6% for $1T–1.25T) stem from regulatory headwinds, including FTC antitrust probes into Microsoft ties and EU AI Act compliance, plus competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI. Upcoming catalysts include Q1 2025 model releases and potential further funding, which could delay public debut further.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,525,002Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting the AI leader's recent restructuring into a for-profit public benefit corporation announced in September 2024, which unlocks unlimited private investment without public listing pressures. A $6.6 billion funding round in October valued OpenAI at $157 billion, underscoring ample private capital availability amid booming demand for its large language models like GPT-4o and o1. Lower odds for trillion-dollar market caps (topping out at 9.6% for $1T–1.25T) stem from regulatory headwinds, including FTC antitrust probes into Microsoft ties and EU AI Act compliance, plus competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI. Upcoming catalysts include Q1 2025 model releases and potential further funding, which could delay public debut further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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