Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, driven by resilient macroeconomic indicators underscoring a soft landing trajectory. Q3 GDP expanded 2.8% annualized, surpassing forecasts, while October nonfarm payrolls added 254,000 jobs against 4.1% unemployment—the lowest since early 2020—bolstering consumer spending amid cooling inflation at 2.4% CPI year-over-year. The Federal Reserve's 50 basis point Fed funds rate cut in September, with further easing anticipated, has eased recession fears historically tied to inverted yield curves, now normalizing. Post-election optimism for pro-growth fiscal policies adds tailwind, though tariff risks and fiscal deficits introduce caution, keeping Yes odds viable at 36%. Key catalysts: December FOMC meeting and Q4 GDP data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertUS-Rezession bis Ende 2026?
US-Rezession bis Ende 2026?
Ja
$903,904 Vol.
$903,904 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
Ja
$903,904 Vol.
$903,904 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, driven by resilient macroeconomic indicators underscoring a soft landing trajectory. Q3 GDP expanded 2.8% annualized, surpassing forecasts, while October nonfarm payrolls added 254,000 jobs against 4.1% unemployment—the lowest since early 2020—bolstering consumer spending amid cooling inflation at 2.4% CPI year-over-year. The Federal Reserve's 50 basis point Fed funds rate cut in September, with further easing anticipated, has eased recession fears historically tied to inverted yield curves, now normalizing. Post-election optimism for pro-growth fiscal policies adds tailwind, though tariff risks and fiscal deficits introduce caution, keeping Yes odds viable at 36%. Key catalysts: December FOMC meeting and Q4 GDP data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Markt eröffnet: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Volumen
$903,904Enddatum
Jan 31, 2027Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, driven by resilient macroeconomic indicators underscoring a soft landing trajectory. Q3 GDP expanded 2.8% annualized, surpassing forecasts, while October nonfarm payrolls added 254,000 jobs against 4.1% unemployment—the lowest since early 2020—bolstering consumer spending amid cooling inflation at 2.4% CPI year-over-year. The Federal Reserve's 50 basis point Fed funds rate cut in September, with further easing anticipated, has eased recession fears historically tied to inverted yield curves, now normalizing. Post-election optimism for pro-growth fiscal policies adds tailwind, though tariff risks and fiscal deficits introduce caution, keeping Yes odds viable at 36%. Key catalysts: December FOMC meeting and Q4 GDP data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volumen
$903,904Enddatum
Jan 31, 2027Markt eröffnet
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, driven by resilient macroeconomic indicators underscoring a soft landing trajectory. Q3 GDP expanded 2.8% annualized, surpassing forecasts, while October nonfarm payrolls added 254,000 jobs against 4.1% unemployment—the lowest since early 2020—bolstering consumer spending amid cooling inflation at 2.4% CPI year-over-year. The Federal Reserve's 50 basis point Fed funds rate cut in September, with further easing anticipated, has eased recession fears historically tied to inverted yield curves, now normalizing. Post-election optimism for pro-growth fiscal policies adds tailwind, though tariff risks and fiscal deficits introduce caution, keeping Yes odds viable at 36%. Key catalysts: December FOMC meeting and Q4 GDP data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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