Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a leading 58.5% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Japan's June 13-14 meeting, driven by Governor Ueda's recent testimony stressing gradualism and data-dependence after March's shift from negative rates to 0-0.1%. A 25 basis-point hike draws 31% odds, fueled by sticky core CPI inflation hitting 2.8% YoY in May—exceeding the 2% target—and accelerating wage gains from shunto talks, though yen weakness at 157/USD tempers aggression. Steeper 50+ bps moves (13.5%) and cuts (6%) lag amid global slowdown risks. Traders eye June CPI and Ueda speeches for shifts, acknowledging forecast uncertainty in yield curve control tweaks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNo change 55%
25 bps increase 30.9%
50+ bps increase 14%
Decrease rates 6%
$12,274 Vol.
$12,274 Vol.
Decrease rates
6%
No change
59%
25 bps increase
31%
50+ bps increase
14%
No change 55%
25 bps increase 30.9%
50+ bps increase 14%
Decrease rates 6%
$12,274 Vol.
$12,274 Vol.
Decrease rates
6%
No change
59%
25 bps increase
31%
50+ bps increase
14%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a leading 58.5% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Japan's June 13-14 meeting, driven by Governor Ueda's recent testimony stressing gradualism and data-dependence after March's shift from negative rates to 0-0.1%. A 25 basis-point hike draws 31% odds, fueled by sticky core CPI inflation hitting 2.8% YoY in May—exceeding the 2% target—and accelerating wage gains from shunto talks, though yen weakness at 157/USD tempers aggression. Steeper 50+ bps moves (13.5%) and cuts (6%) lag amid global slowdown risks. Traders eye June CPI and Ueda speeches for shifts, acknowledging forecast uncertainty in yield curve control tweaks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen