Polymarket traders price a 64% implied probability for a 25 basis point hike in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at the April 25-26 meeting—the leading outcome—reflecting persistent inflation pressures, with March core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year exceeding the 2% target, alongside record 5.3% shunto wage gains signaling stronger labor market dynamics. The 32.5% no-change odds capture caution over yen weakness near 153 per dollar and subdued global demand, tempering aggressive normalization bets despite Governor Ueda's data-dependent rhetoric and rising 40-year JGB yields above 2.5%. Low probabilities for larger hikes (0.9%) or cuts (0.7%) underscore consensus around gradual tightening, with resolution imminent next week.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertErhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 64%
Keine Änderung 32%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte 1.1%
Zinssenkung <1%
$221,118 Vol.
$221,118 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
Zinssenkung
1%
Keine Änderung
32%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
64%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 64%
Keine Änderung 32%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte 1.1%
Zinssenkung <1%
$221,118 Vol.
$221,118 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
Zinssenkung
$67,138 Vol.
1%
Keine Änderung
$39,958 Vol.
32%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$52,665 Vol.
64%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$61,358 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 64% implied probability for a 25 basis point hike in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at the April 25-26 meeting—the leading outcome—reflecting persistent inflation pressures, with March core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year exceeding the 2% target, alongside record 5.3% shunto wage gains signaling stronger labor market dynamics. The 32.5% no-change odds capture caution over yen weakness near 153 per dollar and subdued global demand, tempering aggressive normalization bets despite Governor Ueda's data-dependent rhetoric and rising 40-year JGB yields above 2.5%. Low probabilities for larger hikes (0.9%) or cuts (0.7%) underscore consensus around gradual tightening, with resolution imminent next week.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volumen
$221,118Enddatum
Apr 28, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 64% implied probability for a 25 basis point hike in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at the April 25-26 meeting—the leading outcome—reflecting persistent inflation pressures, with March core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year exceeding the 2% target, alongside record 5.3% shunto wage gains signaling stronger labor market dynamics. The 32.5% no-change odds capture caution over yen weakness near 153 per dollar and subdued global demand, tempering aggressive normalization bets despite Governor Ueda's data-dependent rhetoric and rising 40-year JGB yields above 2.5%. Low probabilities for larger hikes (0.9%) or cuts (0.7%) underscore consensus around gradual tightening, with resolution imminent next week.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$221,118Enddatum
Apr 28, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 64% implied probability for a 25 basis point hike in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at the April 25-26 meeting—the leading outcome—reflecting persistent inflation pressures, with March core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year exceeding the 2% target, alongside record 5.3% shunto wage gains signaling stronger labor market dynamics. The 32.5% no-change odds capture caution over yen weakness near 153 per dollar and subdued global demand, tempering aggressive normalization bets despite Governor Ueda's data-dependent rhetoric and rising 40-year JGB yields above 2.5%. Low probabilities for larger hikes (0.9%) or cuts (0.7%) underscore consensus around gradual tightening, with resolution imminent next week.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen