Trader sentiment on Japan's February unemployment rate remains tightly contested, with implied probabilities nearly even at 28.5% for ≤2.4% and ≥3.0%, and 25% for exactly 2.8%, reflecting balanced bets on the labor market's resilience amid economic headwinds. January's rate held steady at 2.6%—a multi-decade low—supported by a jobs-to-applicants ratio of 1.29, but downside risks stem from Q4 GDP contraction (-0.1% QoQ), weak household spending (-0.7% YoY), and manufacturing contraction (au Jibun PMI at 47.0). Consensus forecasts hover at 2.6%, yet trader capital splits on potential BoJ policy signals from spring wage negotiations, with resolution hinging on March 7 data release thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertFebruary Unemployment Rate - Japan
February Unemployment Rate - Japan
≤2.4% 19%
2.9% 9%
2.6% 5%
2.7% 5%
$18,949 Vol.
$18,949 Vol.
≤2.4%
19%
2.5%
14%
2.6%
15%
2.7%
21%
2.8%
28%
2.9%
14%
≥3.0%
34%
≤2.4% 19%
2.9% 9%
2.6% 5%
2.7% 5%
$18,949 Vol.
$18,949 Vol.
≤2.4%
19%
2.5%
14%
2.6%
15%
2.7%
21%
2.8%
28%
2.9%
14%
≥3.0%
34%
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Japan's February unemployment rate remains tightly contested, with implied probabilities nearly even at 28.5% for ≤2.4% and ≥3.0%, and 25% for exactly 2.8%, reflecting balanced bets on the labor market's resilience amid economic headwinds. January's rate held steady at 2.6%—a multi-decade low—supported by a jobs-to-applicants ratio of 1.29, but downside risks stem from Q4 GDP contraction (-0.1% QoQ), weak household spending (-0.7% YoY), and manufacturing contraction (au Jibun PMI at 47.0). Consensus forecasts hover at 2.6%, yet trader capital splits on potential BoJ policy signals from spring wage negotiations, with resolution hinging on March 7 data release thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen