Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64.5% implied probability of exactly one FOMC dissenter at the April 28-29, 2026 meeting, reflecting a mild policy split amid surging March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy shock from geopolitical tensions. March FOMC minutes, released April 8, highlighted divergent views: some officials open to rate hikes if inflation persists, others noting war-related job risks warranting cuts, echoing Governor Miran's lone March dissent for easing despite the pause. Hawk-dove tensions persist against softening labor (March nonfarm payrolls +178,000, unemployment 4.3%), positioning two dissents at 29.5% as a key alternative while zero dissents lags at 2%. Resolution nears with scant pre-meeting catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1 66%
2 29%
3 6%
0 2.0%
$49,220 Vol.
$49,220 Vol.
0
2%
1
66%
2
29%
3
6%
4+
1%
1 66%
2 29%
3 6%
0 2.0%
$49,220 Vol.
$49,220 Vol.
0
2%
1
66%
2
29%
3
6%
4+
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 8:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64.5% implied probability of exactly one FOMC dissenter at the April 28-29, 2026 meeting, reflecting a mild policy split amid surging March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy shock from geopolitical tensions. March FOMC minutes, released April 8, highlighted divergent views: some officials open to rate hikes if inflation persists, others noting war-related job risks warranting cuts, echoing Governor Miran's lone March dissent for easing despite the pause. Hawk-dove tensions persist against softening labor (March nonfarm payrolls +178,000, unemployment 4.3%), positioning two dissents at 29.5% as a key alternative while zero dissents lags at 2%. Resolution nears with scant pre-meeting catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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