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Politik·Fed

Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?

Market icon
Politik·Fed

Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?

63% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
63% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting. If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus prices a 63% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell's oversight of headquarters renovations before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation, driven by Republican senators like Thom Tillis blocking the nominee until resolution. Tillis's stance, echoed by Leader John Thune, intensified over the past week amid Trump's April 15 Fox interview insisting on the investigation while urging quick Warsh approval ahead of Powell's May 15 term end. A Wall Street Journal editorial yesterday called the probe pretextual, amplifying pressure for a pre-hearing concession next week. Markets weigh tight timelines against Trump's threats to fire Powell from his board seat, balancing monetary policy transition risks with Fed independence concerns.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.

If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$349
Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting. If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting. If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus prices a 63% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell's oversight of headquarters renovations before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation, driven by Republican senators like Thom Tillis blocking the nominee until resolution. Tillis's stance, echoed by Leader John Thune, intensified over the past week amid Trump's April 15 Fox interview insisting on the investigation while urging quick Warsh approval ahead of Powell's May 15 term end. A Wall Street Journal editorial yesterday called the probe pretextual, amplifying pressure for a pre-hearing concession next week. Markets weigh tight timelines against Trump's threats to fire Powell from his board seat, balancing monetary policy transition risks with Fed independence concerns.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.

If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$349
Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting. If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?" liegt bei 63% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 63% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

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