Kevin Warsh's formal nomination as Federal Reserve chair on March 4 has advanced to a Senate Banking Committee hearing scheduled for the week of April 13, amid a Republican 53-47 Senate majority that provides a narrow path to simple-majority confirmation before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end. Trader consensus reflects tight GOP unity, with 54 yes votes (34%) and 51 (33%) leading due to reported opposition from moderates like Sen. Tillis over a DOJ probe into Powell and Sen. Warren's criticism of Warsh as overly aligned with Trump economic policies. The 26% on 60+ votes highlights slim odds for Democratic crossovers to overcome potential filibuster threats, while a strong hearing performance could rally Republicans above 54, but controversy risks defections below 51 or delays pushing toward no vote by year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert54 33.8%
60+ 26%
53 6%
≤49 5.7%
$41,452 Vol.
$41,452 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
≤49
6%
50
4%
51
33%
52
6%
53
6%
54
34%
55
7%
56
1%
57
4%
58
4%
59
2%
60+
26%
Keine Abstimmung bis 31. Dez./Zurückgezogen
5%
54 33.8%
60+ 26%
53 6%
≤49 5.7%
$41,452 Vol.
$41,452 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
≤49
$0 Vol.
6%
50
$0 Vol.
4%
51
$0 Vol.
33%
52
$0 Vol.
6%
53
$221 Vol.
6%
54
$178 Vol.
34%
55
$0 Vol.
7%
56
$52 Vol.
1%
57
$0 Vol.
4%
58
$0 Vol.
4%
59
$388 Vol.
2%
60+
$40,612 Vol.
26%
Keine Abstimmung bis 31. Dez./Zurückgezogen
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Kevin Warsh's formal nomination as Federal Reserve chair on March 4 has advanced to a Senate Banking Committee hearing scheduled for the week of April 13, amid a Republican 53-47 Senate majority that provides a narrow path to simple-majority confirmation before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end. Trader consensus reflects tight GOP unity, with 54 yes votes (34%) and 51 (33%) leading due to reported opposition from moderates like Sen. Tillis over a DOJ probe into Powell and Sen. Warren's criticism of Warsh as overly aligned with Trump economic policies. The 26% on 60+ votes highlights slim odds for Democratic crossovers to overcome potential filibuster threats, while a strong hearing performance could rally Republicans above 54, but controversy risks defections below 51 or delays pushing toward no vote by year-end.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volumen
$41,452Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Kevin Warsh's formal nomination as Federal Reserve chair on March 4 has advanced to a Senate Banking Committee hearing scheduled for the week of April 13, amid a Republican 53-47 Senate majority that provides a narrow path to simple-majority confirmation before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end. Trader consensus reflects tight GOP unity, with 54 yes votes (34%) and 51 (33%) leading due to reported opposition from moderates like Sen. Tillis over a DOJ probe into Powell and Sen. Warren's criticism of Warsh as overly aligned with Trump economic policies. The 26% on 60+ votes highlights slim odds for Democratic crossovers to overcome potential filibuster threats, while a strong hearing performance could rally Republicans above 54, but controversy risks defections below 51 or delays pushing toward no vote by year-end.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$41,452Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kevin Warsh's formal nomination as Federal Reserve chair on March 4 has advanced to a Senate Banking Committee hearing scheduled for the week of April 13, amid a Republican 53-47 Senate majority that provides a narrow path to simple-majority confirmation before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end. Trader consensus reflects tight GOP unity, with 54 yes votes (34%) and 51 (33%) leading due to reported opposition from moderates like Sen. Tillis over a DOJ probe into Powell and Sen. Warren's criticism of Warsh as overly aligned with Trump economic policies. The 26% on 60+ votes highlights slim odds for Democratic crossovers to overcome potential filibuster threats, while a strong hearing performance could rally Republicans above 54, but controversy risks defections below 51 or delays pushing toward no vote by year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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