The resolution of the U.S. Department of Justice criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on headquarters renovation costs—closed without charges on April 24, 2026—underpins the 98.7% market-implied probability that he will not be incarcerated before 2027. A federal judge had already quashed related subpoenas, citing essentially zero evidence of wrongdoing and characterizing the effort as an improper attempt to pressure monetary policy independence. With Powell’s term concluding around the same period and no active investigations or indictments reported since the April closure, trader consensus reflects the absence of credible legal pathways to conviction. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to hypothetical new probes emerging from unrelated matters, though such developments lack any current foundation in filings or enforcement actions.