Traders assign a 98.8% implied probability that Jerome Powell will avoid jail before 2027 because no active criminal proceedings exist against the former Federal Reserve Chair, whose term as head of the central bank concluded in May 2026. The Department of Justice closed its January 2026 probe into Powell’s congressional testimony on the Fed’s headquarters renovations without charges, eliminating the only recent legal overhang. Federal officials benefit from institutional safeguards, extended due-process timelines, and political insulation that make rapid incarceration improbable. Market-implied odds reflect this structural reality while acknowledging tail risks such as unforeseen new allegations or extraordinary political escalation that could theoretically arise before year-end 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
Ja
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.8% implied probability that Jerome Powell will avoid jail before 2027 because no active criminal proceedings exist against the former Federal Reserve Chair, whose term as head of the central bank concluded in May 2026. The Department of Justice closed its January 2026 probe into Powell’s congressional testimony on the Fed’s headquarters renovations without charges, eliminating the only recent legal overhang. Federal officials benefit from institutional safeguards, extended due-process timelines, and political insulation that make rapid incarceration improbable. Market-implied odds reflect this structural reality while acknowledging tail risks such as unforeseen new allegations or extraordinary political escalation that could theoretically arise before year-end 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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