Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increase at the May 4–5, 2026 meeting, reflecting the Board's recent 25 basis point hike to 4.10% on March 17 amid sticky inflation at 3.7% through February (headline CPI) and 3.3% trimmed mean core, alongside robust Q4 2025 GDP growth of 2.6% annually and February employment gains of 48,900 despite unemployment edging to 4.3%. The 41% no-change odds capture RBA Governor's March 31 caution on an uncertain path ahead of late-April Q1 CPI data, while a 0.8% cut remains negligible given resilient labor conditions and global energy shocks from the Iran conflict sustaining inflationary pressures.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertEntscheidung der Reserve Bank of Australia im Mai?
Entscheidung der Reserve Bank of Australia im Mai?
Erhöhung 59%
Keine Änderung 41%
Senkung <1%
$22,283 Vol.
$22,283 Vol.
Senkung
1%
Keine Änderung
41%
Erhöhung
57%
Erhöhung 59%
Keine Änderung 41%
Senkung <1%
$22,283 Vol.
$22,283 Vol.
Senkung
1%
Keine Änderung
41%
Erhöhung
57%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increase at the May 4–5, 2026 meeting, reflecting the Board's recent 25 basis point hike to 4.10% on March 17 amid sticky inflation at 3.7% through February (headline CPI) and 3.3% trimmed mean core, alongside robust Q4 2025 GDP growth of 2.6% annually and February employment gains of 48,900 despite unemployment edging to 4.3%. The 41% no-change odds capture RBA Governor's March 31 caution on an uncertain path ahead of late-April Q1 CPI data, while a 0.8% cut remains negligible given resilient labor conditions and global energy shocks from the Iran conflict sustaining inflationary pressures.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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