Polymarket traders' 59.5% implied probability for a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increase at the May 5 meeting reflects persistent inflation pressures, with February 2026 CPI at 3.7% year-on-year and trimmed mean core inflation steady at 3.3%, exceeding the 2-3% target. The RBA's March 17 hike by 25 basis points to 4.10%—its second this year amid energy price shocks from Middle East tensions—has solidified expectations for further tightening to anchor inflation, supported by a robust labor market with unemployment at 4.2% and strong employment gains. No-change odds at 40.5% capture uncertainty over incoming data, while a decrease remains negligible at 0.8%; watch April jobs and Q1 inflation prints ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertEntscheidung der Reserve Bank of Australia im Mai?
Entscheidung der Reserve Bank of Australia im Mai?
Erhöhung 60%
Keine Änderung 41%
Senkung <1%
$21,668 Vol.
$21,668 Vol.
5. Mai 2026
Senkung
1%
Keine Änderung
41%
Erhöhung
60%
Erhöhung 60%
Keine Änderung 41%
Senkung <1%
$21,668 Vol.
$21,668 Vol.
5. Mai 2026
Senkung
$5,885 Vol.
1%
Keine Änderung
$2,675 Vol.
41%
Erhöhung
$13,108 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Polymarket traders' 59.5% implied probability for a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increase at the May 5 meeting reflects persistent inflation pressures, with February 2026 CPI at 3.7% year-on-year and trimmed mean core inflation steady at 3.3%, exceeding the 2-3% target. The RBA's March 17 hike by 25 basis points to 4.10%—its second this year amid energy price shocks from Middle East tensions—has solidified expectations for further tightening to anchor inflation, supported by a robust labor market with unemployment at 4.2% and strong employment gains. No-change odds at 40.5% capture uncertainty over incoming data, while a decrease remains negligible at 0.8%; watch April jobs and Q1 inflation prints ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ET
Volumen
$21,668Enddatum
5. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Polymarket traders' 59.5% implied probability for a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increase at the May 5 meeting reflects persistent inflation pressures, with February 2026 CPI at 3.7% year-on-year and trimmed mean core inflation steady at 3.3%, exceeding the 2-3% target. The RBA's March 17 hike by 25 basis points to 4.10%—its second this year amid energy price shocks from Middle East tensions—has solidified expectations for further tightening to anchor inflation, supported by a robust labor market with unemployment at 4.2% and strong employment gains. No-change odds at 40.5% capture uncertainty over incoming data, while a decrease remains negligible at 0.8%; watch April jobs and Q1 inflation prints ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Volumen
$21,668Enddatum
5. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' 59.5% implied probability for a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increase at the May 5 meeting reflects persistent inflation pressures, with February 2026 CPI at 3.7% year-on-year and trimmed mean core inflation steady at 3.3%, exceeding the 2-3% target. The RBA's March 17 hike by 25 basis points to 4.10%—its second this year amid energy price shocks from Middle East tensions—has solidified expectations for further tightening to anchor inflation, supported by a robust labor market with unemployment at 4.2% and strong employment gains. No-change odds at 40.5% capture uncertainty over incoming data, while a decrease remains negligible at 0.8%; watch April jobs and Q1 inflation prints ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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