Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 58.5% implied probability to no change in Banco de la República's policy rate at the June 2026 meeting, following the bank's unanimous April 30 decision to hold at 11.25%—defying market expectations for a 50-75 basis point hike amid rising inflation pressures. The April Monetary Policy Report highlighted headline inflation accelerating to 5.6% in March (core at 5.8%), with projections for a 6.4% peak by year-end 2026 driven by wage indexation, robust domestic demand, and external risks from Middle East tensions. Fresh April CPI data released May 8 confirmed the uptick to 5.68% annually, bolstering 36.5% odds for a rate increase, while solid Q1 GDP momentum exceeding Q4 2025 levels and low unemployment underscore persistent excess demand. A rate cut at 3.4% reflects minimal traction given inflation's distance from the 3% target, with May economic releases pivotal ahead of June.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCentral Bank of Colombia Decision in June?
Central Bank of Colombia Decision in June?
No change 55%
Increase 50%
Decrease 3.4%
Decrease
3%
No change
57%
Increase
39%
No change 55%
Increase 50%
Decrease 3.4%
Decrease
3%
No change
57%
Increase
39%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Central Bank of Colombia after its June 30, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar: https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos.
This market may resolve as soon as the Central Bank of Colombia's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 2, 2026, 3:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Central Bank of Colombia after its June 30, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar: https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos.
This market may resolve as soon as the Central Bank of Colombia's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 58.5% implied probability to no change in Banco de la República's policy rate at the June 2026 meeting, following the bank's unanimous April 30 decision to hold at 11.25%—defying market expectations for a 50-75 basis point hike amid rising inflation pressures. The April Monetary Policy Report highlighted headline inflation accelerating to 5.6% in March (core at 5.8%), with projections for a 6.4% peak by year-end 2026 driven by wage indexation, robust domestic demand, and external risks from Middle East tensions. Fresh April CPI data released May 8 confirmed the uptick to 5.68% annually, bolstering 36.5% odds for a rate increase, while solid Q1 GDP momentum exceeding Q4 2025 levels and low unemployment underscore persistent excess demand. A rate cut at 3.4% reflects minimal traction given inflation's distance from the 3% target, with May economic releases pivotal ahead of June.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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