Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to March 2026 annual CPI inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting surging energy prices from the escalating US-Iran conflict that began late February. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project headline CPI year-over-year around 3.2%, up sharply from February's 2.4%, driven by oil exceeding $110 per barrel and gasoline topping $4 per gallon nationally—base effects from prior cooling amplify the monthly jump to 0.8%. This skin-in-the-game positioning prices out sub-2.8% outcomes amid Hormuz Strait risks. Challenges could arise from unexpected de-escalation easing energy before data cutoff, though geopolitical tensions sustain upward pressure ahead of the April 10 BLS release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert≥2,8 % 98.0%
≤2,0 % <1%
2,6 % <1%
2,7 % <1%
$3,065,405 Vol.
$3,065,405 Vol.
≤2,0 %
1%
2,1 %
<1%
2,2 %
<1%
2,3 %
<1%
2,4 %
<1%
2,5 %
<1%
2,6 %
<1%
2,7 %
<1%
≥2,8 %
98%
≥2,8 % 98.0%
≤2,0 % <1%
2,6 % <1%
2,7 % <1%
$3,065,405 Vol.
$3,065,405 Vol.
≤2,0 %
1%
2,1 %
<1%
2,2 %
<1%
2,3 %
<1%
2,4 %
<1%
2,5 %
<1%
2,6 %
<1%
2,7 %
<1%
≥2,8 %
98%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to March 2026 annual CPI inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting surging energy prices from the escalating US-Iran conflict that began late February. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project headline CPI year-over-year around 3.2%, up sharply from February's 2.4%, driven by oil exceeding $110 per barrel and gasoline topping $4 per gallon nationally—base effects from prior cooling amplify the monthly jump to 0.8%. This skin-in-the-game positioning prices out sub-2.8% outcomes amid Hormuz Strait risks. Challenges could arise from unexpected de-escalation easing energy before data cutoff, though geopolitical tensions sustain upward pressure ahead of the April 10 BLS release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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