Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.4% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, driven by surging gasoline prices amid Iran conflict disruptions to oil supplies, with crude above $100 per barrel. February's year-over-year CPI held at 2.4%, but Cleveland Fed nowcasts signal a 0.84% monthly headline increase—the hottest since June 2022—translating to around 3.2% annual, boosted by 27% month-over-month gas gains adding ~0.8 percentage points. Sticky core CPI above 3.5% for six months and FOMC's March upward revision to 2.7% PCE for 2026 reinforce positioning. A pre-April 10 release oil price plunge could challenge this, though sustained geopolitical risks maintain upside bias.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert≥2,8 % 98.4%
≤2,0 % <1%
2,6 % <1%
2,7 % <1%
$2,953,386 Vol.
$2,953,386 Vol.
≤2,0 %
1%
2,1 %
<1%
2,2 %
<1%
2,3 %
<1%
2,4 %
<1%
2,5 %
<1%
2,6 %
<1%
2,7 %
<1%
≥2,8 %
98%
≥2,8 % 98.4%
≤2,0 % <1%
2,6 % <1%
2,7 % <1%
$2,953,386 Vol.
$2,953,386 Vol.
≤2,0 %
1%
2,1 %
<1%
2,2 %
<1%
2,3 %
<1%
2,4 %
<1%
2,5 %
<1%
2,6 %
<1%
2,7 %
<1%
≥2,8 %
98%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.4% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, driven by surging gasoline prices amid Iran conflict disruptions to oil supplies, with crude above $100 per barrel. February's year-over-year CPI held at 2.4%, but Cleveland Fed nowcasts signal a 0.84% monthly headline increase—the hottest since June 2022—translating to around 3.2% annual, boosted by 27% month-over-month gas gains adding ~0.8 percentage points. Sticky core CPI above 3.5% for six months and FOMC's March upward revision to 2.7% PCE for 2026 reinforce positioning. A pre-April 10 release oil price plunge could challenge this, though sustained geopolitical risks maintain upside bias.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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