Trader sentiment on the May 2026 U.S. CPI year-over-year rate reflects the sharp 3.8% April print—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical oil shocks. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to 4.18% for May, with core measures holding near 2.8%, as tariff pass-through, fiscal stimulus effects, and shelter components sustain upward pressure. With 4.2% and 4.3% outcomes commanding roughly equal market-implied odds near 44% and 40%, positioning hinges on incoming data revisions and the June 10 release; any moderation in gasoline costs or labor-market softening could tilt the balance lower, while persistent goods inflation would support the higher side.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4.2% 45%
4.3% 40%
≥4,4 % 12%
4.1% 5.9%
$350,577 Vol.
$350,577 Vol.
≤3,3 %
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
<1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
6%
4.2%
45%
4.3%
40%
≥4,4 %
12%
4.2% 45%
4.3% 40%
≥4,4 % 12%
4.1% 5.9%
$350,577 Vol.
$350,577 Vol.
≤3,3 %
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
<1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
6%
4.2%
45%
4.3%
40%
≥4,4 %
12%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on the May 2026 U.S. CPI year-over-year rate reflects the sharp 3.8% April print—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical oil shocks. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to 4.18% for May, with core measures holding near 2.8%, as tariff pass-through, fiscal stimulus effects, and shelter components sustain upward pressure. With 4.2% and 4.3% outcomes commanding roughly equal market-implied odds near 44% and 40%, positioning hinges on incoming data revisions and the June 10 release; any moderation in gasoline costs or labor-market softening could tilt the balance lower, while persistent goods inflation would support the higher side.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen