Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects heightened caution for India annual CPI inflation in 2026, with the 4.50%+ outcome leading at 32.5% implied probability amid closely contested bins, driven by February 2026 CPI rising to a 10-month high of 3.21% year-over-year under the new 2024=100 base series, fueled by food price pressures. Upside risks from West Asia geopolitical tensions elevating oil import costs have prompted analyst revisions, including Goldman Sachs lifting its 2026 forecast to 4.2% and Fitch to 5.1% for FY2026/27, contrasting RBI's more optimistic FY26 average of 2.1%. Key differentiators include persistent core inflation at 3.4% and potential energy pass-through versus moderating food volatility; March CPI data due April 13 and RBI's April policy meeting loom as pivotal catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert4,50 %+ 33%
3,75 % bis 4,49 % 23%
2,25 % bis 2,99 % 19%
<0,75 % 15%
$57,315 Vol.
$57,315 Vol.
<0,75 %
15%
0,75 % bis 1,49 %
6%
1,50 % bis 2,24 %
16%
2,25 % bis 2,99 %
16%
3,00 % bis 3,74 %
9%
3,75 % bis 4,49 %
23%
4,50 %+
33%
4,50 %+ 33%
3,75 % bis 4,49 % 23%
2,25 % bis 2,99 % 19%
<0,75 % 15%
$57,315 Vol.
$57,315 Vol.
<0,75 %
15%
0,75 % bis 1,49 %
6%
1,50 % bis 2,24 %
16%
2,25 % bis 2,99 %
16%
3,00 % bis 3,74 %
9%
3,75 % bis 4,49 %
23%
4,50 %+
33%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects heightened caution for India annual CPI inflation in 2026, with the 4.50%+ outcome leading at 32.5% implied probability amid closely contested bins, driven by February 2026 CPI rising to a 10-month high of 3.21% year-over-year under the new 2024=100 base series, fueled by food price pressures. Upside risks from West Asia geopolitical tensions elevating oil import costs have prompted analyst revisions, including Goldman Sachs lifting its 2026 forecast to 4.2% and Fitch to 5.1% for FY2026/27, contrasting RBI's more optimistic FY26 average of 2.1%. Key differentiators include persistent core inflation at 3.4% and potential energy pass-through versus moderating food volatility; March CPI data due April 13 and RBI's April policy meeting loom as pivotal catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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