Narendra Modi’s position as Prime Minister remains secure through the end of 2026 due to his third consecutive term following the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the stable support of the NDA coalition in parliament. Recent cabinet resolutions and public events marking his 25 years as head of government underscore ongoing institutional backing, with no scheduled national elections or constitutional mechanisms that would trigger a leadership change before the next polls in 2029. Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability to “No” on the basis of this continuity and the absence of credible challenges to the government’s majority. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health event, a successful no-confidence motion if coalition partners withdraw support, or an unexpected internal BJP succession move, though none of these developments have materialized in recent months.