Narendra Modi’s position as India’s prime minister rests on the five-year Lok Sabha term that runs until 2029, with no scheduled national vote or automatic removal mechanism before December 2026. Traders assign a 98 percent probability to “No” because the BJP-led coalition retains parliamentary support, opposition efforts have focused on state-level protests and Election Commission disputes rather than a viable no-confidence path, and institutional norms favor continuity absent a sudden majority collapse. Recent youth demonstrations over unemployment and voter-roll revisions have highlighted political pressure but have not altered the government’s stability or triggered early dissolution. The only realistic shifts would involve an unforeseen health crisis, abrupt coalition fracture, or unprecedented legal development forcing resignation—events without precedent in the current cycle.