Tight U.S. cattle inventories near 75-year lows, with the July 2026 beef cow herd down 1% year-over-year and the calf crop projected at 32.5 million head, continue to constrain beef supplies and underpin elevated ground beef prices near $6.92–$7.16 per pound. Persistent drought affecting over 50% of cattle regions, rising corn and hay costs, and limited heifer retention have slowed herd rebuilding, while strong consumer demand has supported retail values despite modest increases in tariff-free imports that have yet to meaningfully ease prices. USDA projections for 9.4% higher beef and veal prices in 2026 reflect these dynamics, with limited near-term supply relief expected before 2027.
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