Tight cattle supplies, with the U.S. herd at multi-decade lows and 2026 beef production forecast at 25.79 billion pounds by USDA, remain the dominant driver keeping ground beef prices elevated near $6.90 per pound as of April 2026. Reduced calf crops, elevated cow slaughter earlier in the cycle, and only modest herd stabilization point to continued wholesale increases of 6-10% this year, supported by resilient consumer demand despite affordability pressures. Recent data show retail ground beef up over 16% year-over-year, with imports of lean trim providing limited relief for processors. Key upcoming catalysts include the next Cattle on Feed report and any shifts in feed costs or export volumes that could influence the pace of price moderation later in 2026.