US unemployment held steady at 4.1% in the October 2024 nonfarm payrolls report, with 12,000 jobs added—below consensus expectations of 113,000—signaling a cooling but resilient labor market amid Federal Reserve rate cuts totaling 100 basis points since September. Trader sentiment on 2026 peak unemployment reflects the Fed's September dot plot projecting a modest rise to 4.3% by year-end, driven by persistent inflation above 2% target and slowing GDP growth forecasts around 2%. Key risks include further monetary easing if jobless claims trend higher, juxtaposed against fiscal stimulus tailwinds; watch December 6 nonfarm payrolls and the December 18 FOMC for shifts in rate path expectations that could elevate recession odds and push implied peak unemployment toward 5%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$264,587 Vol.
Jan 10, 2026
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59%
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33%
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15%
10,0 %
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$264,587 Vol.
5,0 %
$73,874 Vol.
59%
5,5 %
$174,277 Vol.
33%
6,0 %
$0 Vol.
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$16,436 Vol.
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.US unemployment held steady at 4.1% in the October 2024 nonfarm payrolls report, with 12,000 jobs added—below consensus expectations of 113,000—signaling a cooling but resilient labor market amid Federal Reserve rate cuts totaling 100 basis points since September. Trader sentiment on 2026 peak unemployment reflects the Fed's September dot plot projecting a modest rise to 4.3% by year-end, driven by persistent inflation above 2% target and slowing GDP growth forecasts around 2%. Key risks include further monetary easing if jobless claims trend higher, juxtaposed against fiscal stimulus tailwinds; watch December 6 nonfarm payrolls and the December 18 FOMC for shifts in rate path expectations that could elevate recession odds and push implied peak unemployment toward 5%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volumen
$264,587Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.US unemployment held steady at 4.1% in the October 2024 nonfarm payrolls report, with 12,000 jobs added—below consensus expectations of 113,000—signaling a cooling but resilient labor market amid Federal Reserve rate cuts totaling 100 basis points since September. Trader sentiment on 2026 peak unemployment reflects the Fed's September dot plot projecting a modest rise to 4.3% by year-end, driven by persistent inflation above 2% target and slowing GDP growth forecasts around 2%. Key risks include further monetary easing if jobless claims trend higher, juxtaposed against fiscal stimulus tailwinds; watch December 6 nonfarm payrolls and the December 18 FOMC for shifts in rate path expectations that could elevate recession odds and push implied peak unemployment toward 5%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$264,587Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US unemployment held steady at 4.1% in the October 2024 nonfarm payrolls report, with 12,000 jobs added—below consensus expectations of 113,000—signaling a cooling but resilient labor market amid Federal Reserve rate cuts totaling 100 basis points since September. Trader sentiment on 2026 peak unemployment reflects the Fed's September dot plot projecting a modest rise to 4.3% by year-end, driven by persistent inflation above 2% target and slowing GDP growth forecasts around 2%. Key risks include further monetary easing if jobless claims trend higher, juxtaposed against fiscal stimulus tailwinds; watch December 6 nonfarm payrolls and the December 18 FOMC for shifts in rate path expectations that could elevate recession odds and push implied peak unemployment toward 5%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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