Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest rebound in March nonfarm payrolls after February's shocking -92,000 decline—far below 50,000-60,000 estimates—blamed on severe weather and strikes, with unemployment ticking up to 4.4%. Leading outcomes cluster tightly at 27.5% for 100k+, 23.0% for 50k-100k, and 22.0% for 0-50k, underscoring competitive dynamics where bettors weigh full reversal of distortions against signs of underlying labor softening, including stable jobless claims near 213,000 and tepid private-sector hiring. Consensus forecasts hover around 50k-80k, mirroring this skin-in-the-game caution ahead of Friday's BLS release, which could sway Fed rate cut odds via labor market trajectory.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWie viele Arbeitsplätze wurden im März hinzugefügt?
Wie viele Arbeitsplätze wurden im März hinzugefügt?
100k+ 28%
0 – 50 Tsd. 26%
50.000 – 100.000 23%
-50k – 0 12%
$17,533 Vol.
$17,533 Vol.
<-150k
3%
-150k – -100k
4%
-100.000 – -50.000
2%
-50k – 0
12%
0 – 50 Tsd.
26%
50.000 – 100.000
23%
100k+
28%
100k+ 28%
0 – 50 Tsd. 26%
50.000 – 100.000 23%
-50k – 0 12%
$17,533 Vol.
$17,533 Vol.
<-150k
3%
-150k – -100k
4%
-100.000 – -50.000
2%
-50k – 0
12%
0 – 50 Tsd.
26%
50.000 – 100.000
23%
100k+
28%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Markt eröffnet: Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest rebound in March nonfarm payrolls after February's shocking -92,000 decline—far below 50,000-60,000 estimates—blamed on severe weather and strikes, with unemployment ticking up to 4.4%. Leading outcomes cluster tightly at 27.5% for 100k+, 23.0% for 50k-100k, and 22.0% for 0-50k, underscoring competitive dynamics where bettors weigh full reversal of distortions against signs of underlying labor softening, including stable jobless claims near 213,000 and tepid private-sector hiring. Consensus forecasts hover around 50k-80k, mirroring this skin-in-the-game caution ahead of Friday's BLS release, which could sway Fed rate cut odds via labor market trajectory.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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