Skip to main content
icon for China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
Economy·Makroindikatoren

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

icon for China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
Economy·Makroindikatoren

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

Juli 16

Juli 16

4.6-4.9% 67%

4.3-4.6% 14.6%

4.9-5.2% 10%

4.0-4.3% 1.9%

Polymarket

$66,368 Vol.

4.6-4.9% 67%

4.3-4.6% 14.6%

4.9-5.2% 10%

4.0-4.3% 1.9%

Polymarket

$66,368 Vol.

<4.0%

$5,721 Vol.

2%

4.0-4.3%

$7,039 Vol.

2%

4.3-4.6%

$6,901 Vol.

15%

4.6-4.9%

$13,180 Vol.

67%

4.9-5.2%

$8,067 Vol.

10%

5.2-5.5%

$8,065 Vol.

2%

5.5-5.8%

$6,145 Vol.

<1%

5.8-6.1%

$5,805 Vol.

<1%

6.1%+

$5,445 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and the prior quarter's pace, supported by export strength and manufacturing investment. However, April indicators revealed a clear slowdown, with industrial output and retail sales missing forecasts amid persistent weakness in domestic consumption and rising energy costs linked to Middle East developments. Policymakers have maintained a cautious stance, aligning with the official 4.5-5.0% annual target range while avoiding broad stimulus. Forecasters from institutions including Goldman Sachs, S&P Global, and the Asian Development Bank project full-year growth near 4.4-4.7%, implying Q2 moderation from the Q1 print but resilience relative to external headwinds. This combination positions the 4.6-4.9% outcome as the market's central expectation ahead of the July release.

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volumen
$66,368
Enddatum
16. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and the prior quarter's pace, supported by export strength and manufacturing investment. However, April indicators revealed a clear slowdown, with industrial output and retail sales missing forecasts amid persistent weakness in domestic consumption and rising energy costs linked to Middle East developments. Policymakers have maintained a cautious stance, aligning with the official 4.5-5.0% annual target range while avoiding broad stimulus. Forecasters from institutions including Goldman Sachs, S&P Global, and the Asian Development Bank project full-year growth near 4.4-4.7%, implying Q2 moderation from the Q1 print but resilience relative to external headwinds. This combination positions the 4.6-4.9% outcome as the market's central expectation ahead of the July release.

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volumen
$66,368
Enddatum
16. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 9 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „4.6-4.9%" mit 67%, gefolgt von „4.3-4.6%" mit 15%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 67¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 67% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $66.4K generiert, seit der Markt am Apr 20, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 9 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?" ist „4.6-4.9%" mit 67%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 67% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „4.3-4.6%" mit 15%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.