Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors fewer than 3.0 million TSA-screened passengers on April 3 at 99.2% implied probability, driven by March 2026 daily volumes peaking at just 2.87 million on March 22 and dipping to 2.15 million on March 31— all well under 3 million amid year-over-year declines of 10-12%. The prolonged DHS government shutdown, now the longest in history, has triggered over 450 TSA officer quits, 40-50% callout rates, and hours-long security lines, deterring spring break travel despite airlines' initial 2.8 million daily forecasts. Realistic upsets would require a sudden shutdown resolution boosting staffing confidence or an unforeseen surge like a holiday rebound, though April 3's midweek positioning makes this improbable as volumes typically stabilize post-weekend. Daily reports update by April 4.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNumber of TSA Passengers April 3?
Number of TSA Passengers April 3?
<3.0M 98.2%
3.0M-3.2M <1%
3.2M-3.4M <1%
3.4M-3.6M <1%
NEU
NEU
3. Apr. 2026
<3.0M
98%
3.0M-3.2M
1%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
3.4M-3.6M
<1%
3.6M-3.8M
<1%
>3.8M
<1%
<3.0M 98.2%
3.0M-3.2M <1%
3.2M-3.4M <1%
3.4M-3.6M <1%
NEU
NEU
3. Apr. 2026
<3.0M
$202 Vol.
98%
3.0M-3.2M
$31 Vol.
1%
3.2M-3.4M
$424 Vol.
<1%
3.4M-3.6M
$388 Vol.
<1%
3.6M-3.8M
$373 Vol.
<1%
>3.8M
$567 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors fewer than 3.0 million TSA-screened passengers on April 3 at 99.2% implied probability, driven by March 2026 daily volumes peaking at just 2.87 million on March 22 and dipping to 2.15 million on March 31— all well under 3 million amid year-over-year declines of 10-12%. The prolonged DHS government shutdown, now the longest in history, has triggered over 450 TSA officer quits, 40-50% callout rates, and hours-long security lines, deterring spring break travel despite airlines' initial 2.8 million daily forecasts. Realistic upsets would require a sudden shutdown resolution boosting staffing confidence or an unforeseen surge like a holiday rebound, though April 3's midweek positioning makes this improbable as volumes typically stabilize post-weekend. Daily reports update by April 4.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Volumen
$1,986Enddatum
3. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors fewer than 3.0 million TSA-screened passengers on April 3 at 99.2% implied probability, driven by March 2026 daily volumes peaking at just 2.87 million on March 22 and dipping to 2.15 million on March 31— all well under 3 million amid year-over-year declines of 10-12%. The prolonged DHS government shutdown, now the longest in history, has triggered over 450 TSA officer quits, 40-50% callout rates, and hours-long security lines, deterring spring break travel despite airlines' initial 2.8 million daily forecasts. Realistic upsets would require a sudden shutdown resolution boosting staffing confidence or an unforeseen surge like a holiday rebound, though April 3's midweek positioning makes this improbable as volumes typically stabilize post-weekend. Daily reports update by April 4.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Volumen
$1,986Enddatum
3. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors fewer than 3.0 million TSA-screened passengers on April 3 at 99.2% implied probability, driven by March 2026 daily volumes peaking at just 2.87 million on March 22 and dipping to 2.15 million on March 31— all well under 3 million amid year-over-year declines of 10-12%. The prolonged DHS government shutdown, now the longest in history, has triggered over 450 TSA officer quits, 40-50% callout rates, and hours-long security lines, deterring spring break travel despite airlines' initial 2.8 million daily forecasts. Realistic upsets would require a sudden shutdown resolution boosting staffing confidence or an unforeseen surge like a holiday rebound, though April 3's midweek positioning makes this improbable as volumes typically stabilize post-weekend. Daily reports update by April 4.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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