Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin contest between March 2026 CPI year-over-year outcomes of 3.3% (39.9% implied probability) and ≥3.4% (40.4%), driven by a surge in energy prices from the recent US-Iran conflict that has pushed crude above $110 per barrel and gasoline up 20% to $3.58 per gallon. February's headline CPI held steady at 2.4%, but hotter February PPI growth of 3.4% year-over-year and the FOMC's March 18 upward revision to 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% signaled reaccelerating pressures. Cleveland Fed nowcasting pegs March headline at 3.25% as of April 1, with swing factors including final oil price passthrough and sticky core services inflation ahead of the April 10 BLS release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert≥3,4 % 40.4%
3,3 % 39.8%
3,2 % 14%
3,1 % 4.6%
$889,161 Vol.
$889,161 Vol.
≤2,6 %
1%
2,7 %
1%
2,8 %
1%
2,9 %
1%
3,0 %
1%
3,1 %
5%
3,2 %
14%
3,3 %
40%
≥3,4 %
40%
≥3,4 % 40.4%
3,3 % 39.8%
3,2 % 14%
3,1 % 4.6%
$889,161 Vol.
$889,161 Vol.
≤2,6 %
1%
2,7 %
1%
2,8 %
1%
2,9 %
1%
3,0 %
1%
3,1 %
5%
3,2 %
14%
3,3 %
40%
≥3,4 %
40%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin contest between March 2026 CPI year-over-year outcomes of 3.3% (39.9% implied probability) and ≥3.4% (40.4%), driven by a surge in energy prices from the recent US-Iran conflict that has pushed crude above $110 per barrel and gasoline up 20% to $3.58 per gallon. February's headline CPI held steady at 2.4%, but hotter February PPI growth of 3.4% year-over-year and the FOMC's March 18 upward revision to 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% signaled reaccelerating pressures. Cleveland Fed nowcasting pegs March headline at 3.25% as of April 1, with swing factors including final oil price passthrough and sticky core services inflation ahead of the April 10 BLS release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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