The primary catalyst underpinning the 88.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point deposit facility rate hike at the ECB’s June 10–11 meeting is the sharp rebound in euro-area inflation to 3.0% in April, driven by elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. After holding the key rate steady at 2.00% on April 30, the Governing Council extensively debated tightening and signaled that incoming data could justify action unless energy costs ease materially. This backdrop has shifted trader consensus toward a modest policy reversal, while the 10.3% odds of no change reflect ongoing concerns over subdued 0.1% first-quarter GDP growth and a resilient but not overheating labor market. Markets now price a data-dependent path, with incoming CPI prints and June projections serving as the key swing factors ahead of the decision.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertErhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 89%
No change 10.3%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$300,013 Vol.
$300,013 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
10%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
89%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 89%
No change 10.3%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$300,013 Vol.
$300,013 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
10%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
89%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The primary catalyst underpinning the 88.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point deposit facility rate hike at the ECB’s June 10–11 meeting is the sharp rebound in euro-area inflation to 3.0% in April, driven by elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. After holding the key rate steady at 2.00% on April 30, the Governing Council extensively debated tightening and signaled that incoming data could justify action unless energy costs ease materially. This backdrop has shifted trader consensus toward a modest policy reversal, while the 10.3% odds of no change reflect ongoing concerns over subdued 0.1% first-quarter GDP growth and a resilient but not overheating labor market. Markets now price a data-dependent path, with incoming CPI prints and June projections serving as the key swing factors ahead of the decision.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen