The primary catalyst underpinning the 88.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point deposit facility rate hike at the ECB’s June 10–11 meeting is the sharp rebound in euro-area inflation to 3.0% in April, driven by elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. After holding the key rate steady at 2.00% on April 30, the Governing Council extensively debated tightening and signaled that incoming data could justify action unless energy costs ease materially. This backdrop has shifted trader consensus toward a modest policy reversal, while the 10.3% odds of no change reflect ongoing concerns over subdued 0.1% first-quarter GDP growth and a resilient but not overheating labor market. Markets now price a data-dependent path, with incoming CPI prints and June projections serving as the key swing factors ahead of the decision.