Recent Middle East-driven energy price surges have intensified upside risks to euro-area inflation, lifting April headline readings to 3% and prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% on April 30 while signaling readiness to tighten. This has driven trader consensus toward an 86% implied probability of a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 meeting, reflecting efforts to anchor expectations amid resilient labor markets and upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts. Residual 12% odds on no change capture ongoing data dependence ahead of incoming inflation and commodity prints that could still shift the policy path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertErhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 86%
No change 12.3%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$349,153 Vol.
$349,153 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
12%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
86%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 86%
No change 12.3%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$349,153 Vol.
$349,153 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
12%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
86%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East-driven energy price surges have intensified upside risks to euro-area inflation, lifting April headline readings to 3% and prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% on April 30 while signaling readiness to tighten. This has driven trader consensus toward an 86% implied probability of a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 meeting, reflecting efforts to anchor expectations amid resilient labor markets and upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts. Residual 12% odds on no change capture ongoing data dependence ahead of incoming inflation and commodity prints that could still shift the policy path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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