Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 32% implied probability for the April unemployment rate holding at March's 4.3% level, where nonfarm payrolls surprised with 178,000 additions versus consensus around 60,000, underscoring labor market resilience amid cooling inflation pressures. Close contention emerges for 4.2% (20.5%) and 4.4% (21%), driven by mixed signals: ISM services employment contracted sharply to 45.2, ADP private payrolls added just 62,000, yet initial jobless claims dropped to a low 207,000 for the week ending April 11. This wide-open field highlights uncertainty from conflicting indicators, with the BLS April report due early May poised to clarify Fed funds rate path expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertApril Arbeitslosenquote
April Arbeitslosenquote
4,3 % 34%
4,2 % 21%
4,4 % 21%
4,5 % 11%
$19,564 Vol.
$19,564 Vol.
8. Mai 2026
≤3,9 %
<1%
4,0 %
2%
4,1 %
6%
4,2 %
21%
4,3 %
34%
4,4 %
21%
4,5 %
11%
4,6 %
4%
≥4,7 %
5%
4,3 % 34%
4,2 % 21%
4,4 % 21%
4,5 % 11%
$19,564 Vol.
$19,564 Vol.
8. Mai 2026
≤3,9 %
$1,936 Vol.
<1%
4,0 %
$1,590 Vol.
2%
4,1 %
$1,493 Vol.
6%
4,2 %
$1,787 Vol.
21%
4,3 %
$1,970 Vol.
34%
4,4 %
$5,524 Vol.
21%
4,5 %
$961 Vol.
11%
4,6 %
$1,305 Vol.
4%
≥4,7 %
$2,997 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 32% implied probability for the April unemployment rate holding at March's 4.3% level, where nonfarm payrolls surprised with 178,000 additions versus consensus around 60,000, underscoring labor market resilience amid cooling inflation pressures. Close contention emerges for 4.2% (20.5%) and 4.4% (21%), driven by mixed signals: ISM services employment contracted sharply to 45.2, ADP private payrolls added just 62,000, yet initial jobless claims dropped to a low 207,000 for the week ending April 11. This wide-open field highlights uncertainty from conflicting indicators, with the BLS April report due early May poised to clarify Fed funds rate path expectations.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ET
Volumen
$19,564Enddatum
8. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 32% implied probability for the April unemployment rate holding at March's 4.3% level, where nonfarm payrolls surprised with 178,000 additions versus consensus around 60,000, underscoring labor market resilience amid cooling inflation pressures. Close contention emerges for 4.2% (20.5%) and 4.4% (21%), driven by mixed signals: ISM services employment contracted sharply to 45.2, ADP private payrolls added just 62,000, yet initial jobless claims dropped to a low 207,000 for the week ending April 11. This wide-open field highlights uncertainty from conflicting indicators, with the BLS April report due early May poised to clarify Fed funds rate path expectations.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$19,564Enddatum
8. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 32% implied probability for the April unemployment rate holding at March's 4.3% level, where nonfarm payrolls surprised with 178,000 additions versus consensus around 60,000, underscoring labor market resilience amid cooling inflation pressures. Close contention emerges for 4.2% (20.5%) and 4.4% (21%), driven by mixed signals: ISM services employment contracted sharply to 45.2, ADP private payrolls added just 62,000, yet initial jobless claims dropped to a low 207,000 for the week ending April 11. This wide-open field highlights uncertainty from conflicting indicators, with the BLS April report due early May poised to clarify Fed funds rate path expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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