The Bureau of Labor Statistics released April 2026 Consumer Price Index data on May 12, confirming year-over-year inflation at 3.8%, up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023, driven primarily by surging energy prices and persistent shelter costs. This official figure has locked in Polymarket's trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the 3.8% outcome, reflecting aggregated capital bets aligned with the definitive BLS print amid $425K in volume. Core CPI rose 2.8% annually, easing slightly to 2.9% prior. Rare post-release revisions could theoretically challenge this positioning, though historical base rates show minimal adjustments; traders now eye May CPI on June 10 for Federal Reserve policy signals.