The Bureau of Labor Statistics released April 2026 Consumer Price Index data on May 12, confirming a seasonally adjusted 0.6% monthly increase in the headline CPI-U, precisely matching pre-release trader consensus on Polymarket and driving the 100% implied probability. This followed March's elevated 0.9% surge, with the April rise propelled by a 3.8% jump in energy prices—led by 5.4% higher gasoline—and 0.6% shelter costs, alongside 0.5% food inflation; core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose a milder 0.4%. Year-over-year headline inflation accelerated to 3.8%. While official data cements this positioning, rare BLS revisions in subsequent reports represent the only realistic challenge to resolution.