Trader consensus on Polymarket pins Argentina's March monthly inflation near 3%, with implied probabilities tightly clustered: 3.1–3.3% at 34%, 2.8–3.0% at 28.5%, and 2.5–2.7% at 28%, signaling competitive dynamics amid decelerating price pressures. February's 2.4% print—down from January's 2.2%—bolsters optimism for Milei's austerity-driven disinflation, reinforced by five straight months of fiscal surplus and a stable crawling peg on the peso. Key differentiators include potential passthrough from regulated utility hikes and food volatility, against private economist forecasts averaging 3.0%; INDEC's mid-April release will resolve, with historical seasonality favoring slight upticks from February lows.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertArgentina Monthly Inflation - March
Argentina Monthly Inflation - March
3.1–3.3% 34%
2.5–2.7% 28%
2.8–3.0% 28%
3.4–3.6% 7%
≤2.1%
1%
2.2–2.4%
5%
2.5–2.7%
28%
2.8–3.0%
28%
3.1–3.3%
34%
3.4–3.6%
7%
3.7%+
3%
3.1–3.3% 34%
2.5–2.7% 28%
2.8–3.0% 28%
3.4–3.6% 7%
≤2.1%
1%
2.2–2.4%
5%
2.5–2.7%
28%
2.8–3.0%
28%
3.1–3.3%
34%
3.4–3.6%
7%
3.7%+
3%
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in March 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on April 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 17, 2026, 10:40 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket pins Argentina's March monthly inflation near 3%, with implied probabilities tightly clustered: 3.1–3.3% at 34%, 2.8–3.0% at 28.5%, and 2.5–2.7% at 28%, signaling competitive dynamics amid decelerating price pressures. February's 2.4% print—down from January's 2.2%—bolsters optimism for Milei's austerity-driven disinflation, reinforced by five straight months of fiscal surplus and a stable crawling peg on the peso. Key differentiators include potential passthrough from regulated utility hikes and food volatility, against private economist forecasts averaging 3.0%; INDEC's mid-April release will resolve, with historical seasonality favoring slight upticks from February lows.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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