Polymarket traders price a 35.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate staying below 1600 by end-2026, reflecting confidence in President Milei's fiscal austerity sustaining the central bank's 2% monthly crawling peg amid disinflation. October's 2.7% monthly inflation—down from 4.4% in August—and the first primary fiscal surplus in 123 years have bolstered reserves to over $30 billion, curbing depreciation fears and compressing odds for brackets above 1900 to under 16% combined. Consensus anticipates ~50% peso weakening from current ~992 levels, but upcoming IMF reviews and 2025 midterms pose risks to this moderated trajectory.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert<1600,00 31%
1600,00–1699,99 25%
1700,00–1799,99 18.2%
1800,00–1899,99 13.1%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1600,00
35%
1600,00–1699,99
25%
1700,00–1799,99
18%
1800,00–1899,99
13%
1900,00–1999,99
8%
2000,00+
8%
<1600,00 31%
1600,00–1699,99 25%
1700,00–1799,99 18.2%
1800,00–1899,99 13.1%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1600,00
$0 Vol.
35%
1600,00–1699,99
$0 Vol.
25%
1700,00–1799,99
$0 Vol.
18%
1800,00–1899,99
$0 Vol.
13%
1900,00–1999,99
$0 Vol.
8%
2000,00+
$0 Vol.
8%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a 35.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate staying below 1600 by end-2026, reflecting confidence in President Milei's fiscal austerity sustaining the central bank's 2% monthly crawling peg amid disinflation. October's 2.7% monthly inflation—down from 4.4% in August—and the first primary fiscal surplus in 123 years have bolstered reserves to over $30 billion, curbing depreciation fears and compressing odds for brackets above 1900 to under 16% combined. Consensus anticipates ~50% peso weakening from current ~992 levels, but upcoming IMF reviews and 2025 midterms pose risks to this moderated trajectory.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a 35.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate staying below 1600 by end-2026, reflecting confidence in President Milei's fiscal austerity sustaining the central bank's 2% monthly crawling peg amid disinflation. October's 2.7% monthly inflation—down from 4.4% in August—and the first primary fiscal surplus in 123 years have bolstered reserves to over $30 billion, curbing depreciation fears and compressing odds for brackets above 1900 to under 16% combined. Consensus anticipates ~50% peso weakening from current ~992 levels, but upcoming IMF reviews and 2025 midterms pose risks to this moderated trajectory.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 35.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate staying below 1600 by end-2026, reflecting confidence in President Milei's fiscal austerity sustaining the central bank's 2% monthly crawling peg amid disinflation. October's 2.7% monthly inflation—down from 4.4% in August—and the first primary fiscal surplus in 123 years have bolstered reserves to over $30 billion, curbing depreciation fears and compressing odds for brackets above 1900 to under 16% combined. Consensus anticipates ~50% peso weakening from current ~992 levels, but upcoming IMF reviews and 2025 midterms pose risks to this moderated trajectory.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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