Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 34% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate remaining below 1600 by end-2026, closely trailed by 1600–1699.99 at 25.5%, reflecting competitive dynamics amid President Milei's ongoing monetary normalization. The Central Bank's 50 consecutive days of dollar purchases exceeding $340 million through mid-March—bolstered by trade surpluses and capital inflows—have stabilized the rate near 1,390, supporting limited depreciation from current levels. February's 2.9% monthly inflation, steady but above forecasts at 33.1% annually, tempers aggressive devaluation expectations under the inflation-linked exchange rate bands introduced January 2026. Key differentiators include sustained reserve accumulation versus risks from global commodity shocks or fiscal slippage, with March inflation data and BCRA interventions as pivotal near-term catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert<1600,00 31%
1600,00–1699,99 26%
1700,00–1799,99 16.8%
2000,00+ 8.6%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1600,00
34%
1600,00–1699,99
26%
1700,00–1799,99
17%
1800,00–1899,99
19%
1900,00–1999,99
8%
2000,00+
9%
<1600,00 31%
1600,00–1699,99 26%
1700,00–1799,99 16.8%
2000,00+ 8.6%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1600,00
$0 Vol.
34%
1600,00–1699,99
$0 Vol.
26%
1700,00–1799,99
$0 Vol.
17%
1800,00–1899,99
$0 Vol.
19%
1900,00–1999,99
$0 Vol.
8%
2000,00+
$855 Vol.
9%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 34% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate remaining below 1600 by end-2026, closely trailed by 1600–1699.99 at 25.5%, reflecting competitive dynamics amid President Milei's ongoing monetary normalization. The Central Bank's 50 consecutive days of dollar purchases exceeding $340 million through mid-March—bolstered by trade surpluses and capital inflows—have stabilized the rate near 1,390, supporting limited depreciation from current levels. February's 2.9% monthly inflation, steady but above forecasts at 33.1% annually, tempers aggressive devaluation expectations under the inflation-linked exchange rate bands introduced January 2026. Key differentiators include sustained reserve accumulation versus risks from global commodity shocks or fiscal slippage, with March inflation data and BCRA interventions as pivotal near-term catalysts.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volumen
$855Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 34% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate remaining below 1600 by end-2026, closely trailed by 1600–1699.99 at 25.5%, reflecting competitive dynamics amid President Milei's ongoing monetary normalization. The Central Bank's 50 consecutive days of dollar purchases exceeding $340 million through mid-March—bolstered by trade surpluses and capital inflows—have stabilized the rate near 1,390, supporting limited depreciation from current levels. February's 2.9% monthly inflation, steady but above forecasts at 33.1% annually, tempers aggressive devaluation expectations under the inflation-linked exchange rate bands introduced January 2026. Key differentiators include sustained reserve accumulation versus risks from global commodity shocks or fiscal slippage, with March inflation data and BCRA interventions as pivotal near-term catalysts.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$855Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 34% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate remaining below 1600 by end-2026, closely trailed by 1600–1699.99 at 25.5%, reflecting competitive dynamics amid President Milei's ongoing monetary normalization. The Central Bank's 50 consecutive days of dollar purchases exceeding $340 million through mid-March—bolstered by trade surpluses and capital inflows—have stabilized the rate near 1,390, supporting limited depreciation from current levels. February's 2.9% monthly inflation, steady but above forecasts at 33.1% annually, tempers aggressive devaluation expectations under the inflation-linked exchange rate bands introduced January 2026. Key differentiators include sustained reserve accumulation versus risks from global commodity shocks or fiscal slippage, with March inflation data and BCRA interventions as pivotal near-term catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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