Polymarket traders assign a 56.5% implied probability to Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate surpassing 1600 by year-end 2026, driven by the Central Bank's crawling peg regime—launched January 2026—where bands expand monthly at the inflation rate, currently hovering near 2.9%. February's consumer price index held steady at 2.9% month-over-month (33.1% year-over-year), topping economist forecasts of 2.7% and prompting revisions to full-year inflation estimates around 24%, sustaining devaluation expectations from the current ~1400 level. Central bank dollar accumulation exceeds $3.7 billion year-to-date amid benchmark rates collapsing to 20%, supporting reserves but highlighting policy tensions. March CPI, due mid-April, looms as the next sentiment catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertArgentiniens offizieller USD-Wechselkurs Ende 2026?
Argentiniens offizieller USD-Wechselkurs Ende 2026?
1600,00+ 49%
<1250,00 13.7%
1500,00–1549,99 7.6%
1350,00–1399,99 7.1%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1250,00
14%
1250,00–1299,99
13%
1300,00–1349,99
5%
1350,00–1399,99
7%
1400,00–1449,99
5%
1450,00–1499,99
8%
1500,00–1549,99
16%
1550,00–1599,99
6%
1600,00+
56%
1600,00+ 49%
<1250,00 13.7%
1500,00–1549,99 7.6%
1350,00–1399,99 7.1%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1250,00
$0 Vol.
14%
1250,00–1299,99
$0 Vol.
13%
1300,00–1349,99
$0 Vol.
5%
1350,00–1399,99
$0 Vol.
7%
1400,00–1449,99
$0 Vol.
5%
1450,00–1499,99
$0 Vol.
8%
1500,00–1549,99
$0 Vol.
16%
1550,00–1599,99
$0 Vol.
6%
1600,00+
$1,264 Vol.
56%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 56.5% implied probability to Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate surpassing 1600 by year-end 2026, driven by the Central Bank's crawling peg regime—launched January 2026—where bands expand monthly at the inflation rate, currently hovering near 2.9%. February's consumer price index held steady at 2.9% month-over-month (33.1% year-over-year), topping economist forecasts of 2.7% and prompting revisions to full-year inflation estimates around 24%, sustaining devaluation expectations from the current ~1400 level. Central bank dollar accumulation exceeds $3.7 billion year-to-date amid benchmark rates collapsing to 20%, supporting reserves but highlighting policy tensions. March CPI, due mid-April, looms as the next sentiment catalyst.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volumen
$1,264Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 56.5% implied probability to Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate surpassing 1600 by year-end 2026, driven by the Central Bank's crawling peg regime—launched January 2026—where bands expand monthly at the inflation rate, currently hovering near 2.9%. February's consumer price index held steady at 2.9% month-over-month (33.1% year-over-year), topping economist forecasts of 2.7% and prompting revisions to full-year inflation estimates around 24%, sustaining devaluation expectations from the current ~1400 level. Central bank dollar accumulation exceeds $3.7 billion year-to-date amid benchmark rates collapsing to 20%, supporting reserves but highlighting policy tensions. March CPI, due mid-April, looms as the next sentiment catalyst.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$1,264Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 56.5% implied probability to Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate surpassing 1600 by year-end 2026, driven by the Central Bank's crawling peg regime—launched January 2026—where bands expand monthly at the inflation rate, currently hovering near 2.9%. February's consumer price index held steady at 2.9% month-over-month (33.1% year-over-year), topping economist forecasts of 2.7% and prompting revisions to full-year inflation estimates around 24%, sustaining devaluation expectations from the current ~1400 level. Central bank dollar accumulation exceeds $3.7 billion year-to-date amid benchmark rates collapsing to 20%, supporting reserves but highlighting policy tensions. March CPI, due mid-April, looms as the next sentiment catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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