Trader consensus assigns a 98.3% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by U.S. intelligence assessments in March 2026 stating Beijing lacks plans for assault even by 2027, prioritizing non-military coercion. Absent observable PLA preparations for amphibious operations—requiring months of logistics—recent developments reinforce stability: routine Chinese naval deployments in early May, Taiwan's Kinmen live-fire drills today, and joint U.S.-Philippines Balikatan exercises enhancing Indo-Pacific deterrence. Diplomatic channels persist amid Trump-Xi talks on Taiwan arms sales and Taiwan's delayed special defense budget. Unforeseen shifts like abrupt blockades or major Taiwan Strait crises could alter odds, though timelines constrain feasibility.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$7,769,723 Vol.
$7,769,723 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$7,769,723 Vol.
$7,769,723 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 98.3% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by U.S. intelligence assessments in March 2026 stating Beijing lacks plans for assault even by 2027, prioritizing non-military coercion. Absent observable PLA preparations for amphibious operations—requiring months of logistics—recent developments reinforce stability: routine Chinese naval deployments in early May, Taiwan's Kinmen live-fire drills today, and joint U.S.-Philippines Balikatan exercises enhancing Indo-Pacific deterrence. Diplomatic channels persist amid Trump-Xi talks on Taiwan arms sales and Taiwan's delayed special defense budget. Unforeseen shifts like abrupt blockades or major Taiwan Strait crises could alter odds, though timelines constrain feasibility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Volumen
$7,769,723Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 98.3% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by U.S. intelligence assessments in March 2026 stating Beijing lacks plans for assault even by 2027, prioritizing non-military coercion. Absent observable PLA preparations for amphibious operations—requiring months of logistics—recent developments reinforce stability: routine Chinese naval deployments in early May, Taiwan's Kinmen live-fire drills today, and joint U.S.-Philippines Balikatan exercises enhancing Indo-Pacific deterrence. Diplomatic channels persist amid Trump-Xi talks on Taiwan arms sales and Taiwan's delayed special defense budget. Unforeseen shifts like abrupt blockades or major Taiwan Strait crises could alter odds, though timelines constrain feasibility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$7,769,799Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 98.3% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by U.S. intelligence assessments in March 2026 stating Beijing lacks plans for assault even by 2027, prioritizing non-military coercion. Absent observable PLA preparations for amphibious operations—requiring months of logistics—recent developments reinforce stability: routine Chinese naval deployments in early May, Taiwan's Kinmen live-fire drills today, and joint U.S.-Philippines Balikatan exercises enhancing Indo-Pacific deterrence. Diplomatic channels persist amid Trump-Xi talks on Taiwan arms sales and Taiwan's delayed special defense budget. Unforeseen shifts like abrupt blockades or major Taiwan Strait crises could alter odds, though timelines constrain feasibility.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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