Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79.5% implied probability against a military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027, driven by persistent but restrained South China Sea standoffs that stop short of armed engagement. In the past month, Philippine resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal faced Chinese coast guard blockades and water cannon use—including an October 24 incident injuring a Filipino sailor—but both sides avoided lethal force, adhering to de-escalation protocols from bilateral consultations held in Manila on October 31. Strengthening US-Philippines defense ties, including joint exercises, and ASEAN-led code of conduct talks further deter escalation, outweighing territorial disputes amid economic interdependence and mutual deterrence.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$190,851 Vol.
$190,851 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ja
$190,851 Vol.
$190,851 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79.5% implied probability against a military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027, driven by persistent but restrained South China Sea standoffs that stop short of armed engagement. In the past month, Philippine resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal faced Chinese coast guard blockades and water cannon use—including an October 24 incident injuring a Filipino sailor—but both sides avoided lethal force, adhering to de-escalation protocols from bilateral consultations held in Manila on October 31. Strengthening US-Philippines defense ties, including joint exercises, and ASEAN-led code of conduct talks further deter escalation, outweighing territorial disputes amid economic interdependence and mutual deterrence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Volumen
$190,851Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79.5% implied probability against a military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027, driven by persistent but restrained South China Sea standoffs that stop short of armed engagement. In the past month, Philippine resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal faced Chinese coast guard blockades and water cannon use—including an October 24 incident injuring a Filipino sailor—but both sides avoided lethal force, adhering to de-escalation protocols from bilateral consultations held in Manila on October 31. Strengthening US-Philippines defense ties, including joint exercises, and ASEAN-led code of conduct talks further deter escalation, outweighing territorial disputes amid economic interdependence and mutual deterrence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$190,851Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79.5% implied probability against a military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027, driven by persistent but restrained South China Sea standoffs that stop short of armed engagement. In the past month, Philippine resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal faced Chinese coast guard blockades and water cannon use—including an October 24 incident injuring a Filipino sailor—but both sides avoided lethal force, adhering to de-escalation protocols from bilateral consultations held in Manila on October 31. Strengthening US-Philippines defense ties, including joint exercises, and ASEAN-led code of conduct talks further deter escalation, outweighing territorial disputes amid economic interdependence and mutual deterrence.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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