CNN Business cites White House officials saying a final TikTok deal is imminent and that Walmart remains a “key stakeholder” in the pending agreement

Walmart surges to 28%26%

CNN Business cites White House officials saying a final TikTok deal is imminent and that Walmart remains a “key stakeholder” in the pending agreement

AI News article highlights Musk’s “bold gamble” on TikTok, noting his strategic interest in the app’s data for X’s AI roadmap – Analysts cited the piece as evidence of renewed but

Elon Musk / X (Twitter) drops to 4%5%

AI News article highlights Musk’s “bold gamble” on TikTok, noting his strategic interest in the app’s data for X’s AI roadmap – Analysts cited the piece as evidence of renewed but still uncertain talks, causing the

U.S. regulators approve the Oracle‑Silver Lake‑MGX TikTok joint venture, ending all pending acquisition talks – Following congressional approval, the deal was deemed final,

Meta dips to 4%1%

U.S. regulators approve the Oracle‑Silver Lake‑MGX TikTok joint venture, ending all pending acquisition talks – Following congressional approval, the deal was deemed final, reinforcing the consensus that Meta would not acquire TikTok and nudging the

MoneyCheck notes AppLovin’s SEC investigation into targeted‑advertising practices, dampening optimism about any future TikTok deal and pulling the probability back down

AppLovin rises to 9%1%

MoneyCheck notes AppLovin’s SEC investigation into targeted‑advertising practices, dampening optimism about any future TikTok deal and pulling the probability back down

The Information reports Walmart is negotiating a strategic partnership to integrate TikTok’s shopping tools into its e‑commerce platform, pushing the odds back up

Walmart jumps to 11%5%

The Information reports Walmart is negotiating a strategic partnership to integrate TikTok’s shopping tools into its e‑commerce platform, pushing the odds back up

New York Times reports a verified @elonmusk account appears on TikTok as Musk prepares a SpaceX IPO – Musk’s visible presence on TikTok reignited speculation that he might acquire

Elon Musk / X (Twitter) jumps to 9%6%

New York Times reports a verified @elonmusk account appears on TikTok as Musk prepares a SpaceX IPO – Musk’s visible presence on TikTok reignited speculation that he might acquire the platform, spiking the “Yes” probability to a short‑term high.

TechCrunch updates that Walmart re‑entered talks after a new “AI‑enabled commerce” proposal, sparking a sharp rise in its acquisition probability

Walmart surges to 37%34%

TechCrunch updates that Walmart re‑entered talks after a new “AI‑enabled commerce” proposal, sparking a sharp rise in its acquisition probability

Meta rolls out major upgrades to Instagram Reels, emphasising competition with TikTok – In a TechCrunch piece, Meta highlighted a suite of new Reels features aimed at capturing

Meta jumps to 14%10%

Meta rolls out major upgrades to Instagram Reels, emphasising competition with TikTok – In a TechCrunch piece, Meta highlighted a suite of new Reels features aimed at capturing TikTok users, briefly reviving market hopes that Meta might seek a direct acquisition, which produced a short‑term

Market briefly rallies on rumors of Microsoft re-entering TikTok acquisition talks

Microsoft jumps to 12%6%

Speculation about Microsoft re-engaging in acquisition discussions led to a temporary

FX Leaders reports AppLovin officially abandons the TikTok bid and announces plans for a “next‑gen” social platform, reviving some belief that the company could still secure a deal

AppLovin rises to 5%2%

FX Leaders reports AppLovin officially abandons the TikTok bid and announces plans for a “next‑gen” social platform, reviving some belief that the company could still secure a deal

Bloomberg details AppLovin’s pivot to building its own social network after the failed TikTok acquisition, prompting a modest

AppLovin rises to 8%3%

Bloomberg details AppLovin’s pivot to building its own social network after the failed TikTok acquisition, prompting a modest

Reuters notes U.S. lawmakers demand scrutiny of the TikTok joint‑venture;

Walmart dips to 3%1%

the disclosed investor list again omits Walmart, dampening market optimism

TechCrunch and Yahoo Finance reported the US TikTok deal valuation soaring to $60 billion, with multiple investors competing and the deal finally ceasing after Trump extended the

Amazon drops to 6%5%

TechCrunch and Yahoo Finance reported the US TikTok deal valuation soaring to $60 billion, with multiple investors competing and the deal finally ceasing after Trump extended the ban deadline multiple times

Reuters and other outlets confirmed the finalized deal for a majority American-owned joint venture to secure US data and avoid a ban, with investors including Michael Dell's

Amazon rises to 11%3%

Reuters and other outlets confirmed the finalized deal for a majority American-owned joint venture to secure US data and avoid a ban, with investors including Michael Dell's family office and others

TikTok announced the official establishment of TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, led by a consortium including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX, meeting the January 23 deadline set by

Amazon jumps to 8%6%

TikTok announced the official establishment of TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, led by a consortium including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX, meeting the January 23 deadline set by Trump

NPR reports TikTok finalizes a joint‑venture with investors such as Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX;

Walmart rises to 4%2%

Walmart is not mentioned, reinforcing speculation that it missed the final round

Deal closes: TikTok U.S. joint venture officially owned by Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX – CNN Business announced the finalisation of the transaction, removing any remaining

Meta dips to 3%2%

Deal closes: TikTok U.S. joint venture officially owned by Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX – CNN Business announced the finalisation of the transaction, removing any remaining speculation about a Meta bid and keeping the “Meta” probability at its lowest level.

AppLovin shares rise 2% after confirming timeline for its new social platform launch – Management gave a concrete rollout schedule, reviving belief that the company could still

AppLov1 jumps to 10%8%

AppLovin shares rise 2% after confirming timeline for its new social platform launch – Management gave a concrete rollout schedule, reviving belief that the company could still leverage TikTok‑related assets, pushing odds higher.

Short‑seller firm Fuzzy Panda alleges AppLovin committed ad‑fraud and illegal child‑targeted ads, sparking a sharp drop in the acquisition‑probability metric

AppLovin plunges to 2%42%

Short‑seller firm Fuzzy Panda alleges AppLovin committed ad‑fraud and illegal child‑targeted ads, sparking a sharp drop in the acquisition‑probability metric

U.S. regulators announce the final deadline for TikTok’s divestiture passes without a buyer, intensifying ban fears – The missed deadline reinforced the view that a Musk deal was

Elon Musk / X (Twitter) drops to 1%5%

U.S. regulators announce the final deadline for TikTok’s divestiture passes without a buyer, intensifying ban fears – The missed deadline reinforced the view that a Musk deal was unlikely, pushing the

NPR reveals TikTok’s spin‑off deal includes major investors but does not list Walmart, prompting doubts about its involvement

Walmart dips to 2%3%

NPR reveals TikTok’s spin‑off deal includes major investors but does not list Walmart, prompting doubts about its involvement

NPR reported TikTok officially signed a deal to form a new joint venture for US operations, with ByteDance retaining under 20% ownership and a consortium holding majority stakes

Amazon rises to 10%4%

NPR reported TikTok officially signed a deal to form a new joint venture for US operations, with ByteDance retaining under 20% ownership and a consortium holding majority stakes

ByteDance signs binding agreement handing TikTok U.S.

Meta dips to 2%3%

control to the Oracle‑Silver Lake‑MGX investor group – Reuters confirmed the deal, noting that the consortium would own 80 % of the new joint venture, further cementing the view that Meta was not a buyer and pushing the

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew announced to employees that TikTok's US operations would be housed in a new joint venture responsible for US data protection and algorithm retraining

Amazon drops to 4%8%

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew announced to employees that TikTok's US operations would be housed in a new joint venture responsible for US data protection and algorithm retraining

Pattern Group announced acquisition of NextWave, expanding TikTok Shop and creator-led commerce capabilities, signaling growing e-commerce integration with TikTok

Amazon jumps to 12%8%

Pattern Group announced acquisition of NextWave, expanding TikTok Shop and creator-led commerce capabilities, signaling growing e-commerce integration with TikTok

TikTok U.S. sale deal announced, valuing the unit at $14 billion

Microsoft drops to 4%13%

The announcement of a deal primarily involving Oracle and Silver Lake, with no clear Microsoft lead, caused a sharp

Analysts note AppLovin’s market valuation peaks at $248 billion amid heightened TikTok‑acquisition chatter, driving the probability to a 44 % high

AppLovin surges to 44%39%

Analysts note AppLovin’s market valuation peaks at $248 billion amid heightened TikTok‑acquisition chatter, driving the probability to a 44 % high

TikTok deal nears formation of new U.S. unit with Oracle and Silver Lake investors

Microsoft jumps to 17%13%

News emerged that TikTok was forming a new U.S. entity with Oracle and Silver Lake, with Microsoft still in talks, causing a sharp

Reports emerged that TikTok signed a deal to spin off its US operations into a new joint venture, with the White House backing the deal and a closing date targeted for January 22,

Amazon jumps to 13%10%

Reports emerged that TikTok signed a deal to spin off its US operations into a new joint venture, with the White House backing the deal and a closing date targeted for January 22, 2026

Global Trade Magazine publishes that Oracle and Walmart have agreed to purchase a combined 60 % stake in TikTok’s U.S. operations

Walmart rises to 5%3%

Global Trade Magazine publishes that Oracle and Walmart have agreed to purchase a combined 60 % stake in TikTok’s U.S. operations

TechCrunch reports Walmart is listed as a potential buyer in the U.S.

Walmart dips to 2%3%

TikTok sale alongside Amazon, Microsoft and others

AppLovin is added to the S&P 500 index, boosting its visibility and speculation that it could finance a TikTok purchase

AppLovin rises to 5%1%

AppLovin is added to the S&P 500 index, boosting its visibility and speculation that it could finance a TikTok purchase

Reuters reports AppLovin’s bid is among the “groups that have bid for TikTok,” confirming the company’s continued interest

Reuters reports AppLovin’s bid is among the “groups that have bid for TikTok,” confirming the company’s continued interest

Reports highlight multiple bidders for TikTok U.S., including Microsoft

Microsoft rises to 6%1%

Reuters reported that Microsoft was among several tech companies and investors bidding for TikTok's U.S. operations, keeping market hopes alive for a Microsoft acquisition.

TikTok’s U.S. operations slated for sale to an Oracle‑Silver Lake‑MGX consortium, ending the chance of a Meta takeover – The Lynnwood Times reported that TikTok would be spun off

Meta drops to 3%7%

TikTok’s U.S. operations slated for sale to an Oracle‑Silver Lake‑MGX consortium, ending the chance of a Meta takeover – The Lynnwood Times reported that TikTok would be spun off into a new American entity controlled by Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX, signaling that a Meta‑led acquisition was no longer on the table and driving the market down sharply.

The Information publishes a prediction that Musk will try to buy TikTok, citing the looming U.S.

Elon Musk / X (Twitter) drops to 5%6%

ban deadline – The speculative piece revived interest in Musk as a possible buyer, causing the “Yes” odds to tumble as traders reassessed the credibility of the prediction.

U.S. and China reach framework agreement for TikTok U.S. operations under majority American ownership

Microsoft drops to 5%6%

President Trump announced a deal allowing TikTok to continue in the U.S. with 80% American control, extending the divestiture deadline and involving a consortium including Oracle and others, reducing Microsoft's perceived chances temporarily.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order approving a proposed deal for TikTok's US operations to be spun off from ByteDance, allowing a consortium of US investors to

Amazon drops to 2%9%

President Donald Trump signed an executive order approving a proposed deal for TikTok's US operations to be spun off from ByteDance, allowing a consortium of US investors to control the platform

AppLovin files a formal bid to acquire TikTok’s U.S.

AppLovin dips to 4%2%

operations after the U.S. government threatens a ban

Former President Trump confirms Microsoft is in talks to acquire TikTok

Microsoft rises to 7%1%

Trump publicly stated Microsoft was negotiating to buy TikTok, sparking renewed market interest and a slight

TikTok publicly refutes any acquisition talks with Musk, calling the rumors “pure fiction” – TikTok’s denial gave traders a brief reason to think the market had over‑reacted,

Elon Musk / X (Twitter) rises to 4%3%

TikTok publicly refutes any acquisition talks with Musk, calling the rumors “pure fiction” – TikTok’s denial gave traders a brief reason to think the market had over‑reacted, nudging the

Bloomberg reports Chinese officials in preliminary talks about selling TikTok’s U.S.

Elon Musk / X (Twitter) dips to 1%4%

operations to Elon Musk – The story that Beijing was even considering Musk as a buyer sharply lowered confidence in a deal, pulling the “Yes” probability toward the low single‑digit range.